Aid Unpredictability and Economic Growth

被引：25
作者：
Kodama, Masahiro [1 ,2 ]
机构：
[1] Inst Econ Dev, Chiba, Japan
[2] Malaysian Inst Econ Res, Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia
来源：
WORLD DEVELOPMENT | 2012年 / 40卷 / 02期
关键词：
aid; economic growth; predictability; low-income countries; VOLATILITY; TERMS; TRADE;
D O I：
10.1016/j.worlddev.2011.07.015
中图分类号：
F0 [经济学]; F1 [世界各国经济概况、经济史、经济地理]; C [社会科学总论];
学科分类号：
0201 ; 020105 ; 03 ; 0303 ;
摘要：
In this paper, we examine the influence of unpredictable aid on a recipient's economic growth. If aid amounts vary by year and the changes are unpredictable, we expect that this "unpredictability" decreases aid's growth-enhancing effect. This naturally raises the questions: How large is the influence of aid "unpredictability" on a recipient's economic growth? Does "unpredictability" significantly damage aid's growth-enhancing effect? Our research shows that the impact is significant; in a typical case, one fifth of aid is wasted due to "unpredictability." Further, it is possible that in some cases, the aid may be wasted by as much as one third. (C) 2011 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
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页码：266 / 272
页数：7
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