It's Over, Over There: The Coming Crack-up in Transatlantic Relations

Euro-American ties - and NATO - have been ruptured, and never again will be the same. Of course, as the historian Lawrence S. Kaplan correctly observed, 'The idea of NATO being in a terminal state has been a topic for pundits since the 1950s' (Kaplan, 1992, 16). It still is. However, today those who argue that the Alliance is in terminal decline have a very strong case to make. There are four reasons for this. First, the Cold War's end has deprived NATO of its essential raison d'etre. Second, the European Union has not only taken huge strides toward attaining political and economic unity but now also has taken significant steps to creating the capacity to act independently of the United States in the security arena. Third, the structural effects of unipolarity are pushing the EU in the direction of counter-balancing American preponderance. Fourth, the Iraq war has highlighted the divergent geopolitical interests of the US and the EU. International Politics (2008) 45, 325-347. doi: 10.1057/ip.2008.6