Real-world observational study of assessment of CHA2DS2-VASc, C2HEST and HAVOC scores for atrial fibrillation among patients with rheumatological disorders: a nationwide analysis

Purpose This is a nationwide-based retrospective study aiming to compare the three different scoring systems (CHA(2)DS(2)-VASc, C2HEST and HAVOC scores) in the prediction of atrial fibrillation (AF) in patients with rheumatological disease. Methods We used the Fine and Gray model to estimate the risk of AF (subhazard ratio and 95% CI). The predictive accuracy and discriminatory ability of the predictive model were evaluated by receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve. Results Among the three predictive models, the model using CHA(2)DS(2)-VASc score had the better discriminative ability with an ROC of 0.79. The model with C2HEST score had an ROC of 0.78. The discriminative ability of the HAVOC score was 0.77, estimated by ROC. Conclusion We concluded the CHA(2)DS(2)-VASc score has better performance in predicting AF compared with C2HEST score or HAVOC score.