Predicting the invasion risk of non-native reptiles as pets in the Middle East

Trade of non-native reptiles is an important and increasing driver of biodiversity loss and often compromises the standards required for protection. However, the growing interest in non-native reptiles as pets has posed serious concerns to wildlife managers and conservationists. Instituting effective policies regarding non-native reptiles requires a thorough understanding of the potential range of species in new environments. In this study, we used an ensemble of ten species distribution models to predict the potential distribution for 23 of the most commonly traded species of reptiles across the Middle East. We used ten modeling techniques implemented in the Biomod2 package and ensemble forecasts. Final models used thirty environmental variables, including climatic, topographic, and land cover/land use variables. Our results indicate that all Middle Eastern countries included suitable habitats for at least six species, except Qatar, Kuwait and Bahrain, for which the models did not predict any suitable habitats. Our study showed that Lebanon, Palestine, Turkey, and Israel face the highest risk of biological invasion based on the area of suitable habitats for all studied species. Also, the results showed that turtles posed the highest risk of spreading in the Middle East. Information on which species pose a greater danger as invaders and the possible impacts of their introduction will be a valuable contribution to the development of conservation plans and policies.