Port congestion and the economics of LPG seaborne transportation

被引:17
作者
Bai, Xiwen [1 ]
Jia, Haiying [2 ]
Xu, Mingqi [1 ]
机构
[1] Tsinghua Univ, Dept Ind Engn, 608 Shunde Bldg, Beijing 100084, Peoples R China
[2] Norwegian Sch Econ, Bergen, Norway
基金
中国国家自然科学基金;
关键词
LPG; Ais; system dynamics; port congestion; freight market; vlgc; SYSTEM-DYNAMICS; MARITIME TRANSPORTATION; SPEED OPTIMIZATION; ENERGY EFFICIENCY; MODELS; FLOW;
D O I
10.1080/03088839.2021.1940334
中图分类号
U [交通运输];
学科分类号
08 ; 0823 ;
摘要
This paper investigates how port congestion affects maritime transportation freight rates for Liquefied Petroleum Gas seaborne trade in a System Dynamics model by capturing supply and demand dynamics from the actual shipment data derived from the Automatic Identification System. The methodology enables the analysis of causal effects among the multilayered elements in the supply and demand loop of Liquefied Petroleum Gas seaborne transportation at the micro level. We find evidence of causal effect of port congestion in its severity on freight rate when the market condition is tight. Moreover, the model provides trend forecasts for freight change directions. The findings have significant implications for practitioners and policy makers.
引用
收藏
页码:913 / 929
页数:17
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