Temporal changes of lung cancer mortality in Korea

The lung cancer mortality in Korea has increased remarkably during the last 20 yr, and, it has become the first leading cause of cancer-related deaths since 2000. The aim of the current study was to examine time trends of lung cancer mortality during the period 1984-2003 in Korea, assessing the effects of age, period, and birth cohort. Data on the annual number of deaths due to lung cancer and on population statistics from 1984 to 2003 were obtained from the Korea National Statistical Off ice. A log-linear Poisson age-period-cohort model was used to estimate the effects of age, period, and birth cohort. The both trends of male and female lung cancer mortality were both explained by age-period-cohort models. The risks of lung cancer mortalities for both genders were shown to decline in recent birth cohorts. The decreasing trends begin with the 1939 birth cohort for men and 1959 for women. The mortality pattern of lung cancer was dominantly explained by a birth cohort effect, possibly related with the change in smoking pattern, for both men and women. Finally, the mortality of lung cancer in Korea is expected to further increase in both men and women for a while.