A Stochastic Approach to Estimate Distribution of Built-Up Area in Regions with Thick Tree Cover

Buildings and other human-made constructions have been accepted as an indicator of human habitation and are identified as built-up area. Identification of built-up area in a region and its subsequent measurement is a key step in many fields of studies like urban planning, environmental studies, and population demography. Remote sensing techniques utilising medium resolution images (e.g. LISS III, Landsat) are extensively used for the extraction of the built-up area as high-resolution images are expensive, and its processing is difficult. Extraction of built land use from medium resolution images poses a challenge in regions like Western-Ghats, North-East regions of India, and countries in tropical region, due to the thick evergreen tree cover. The spectral signature of individual houses with a small footprint are easily overpowered by the overlapping tree canopy in a medium resolution image when the buildings are not clustered. Kerala is a typical case for this scenario. The research presented here proposes a stochastic-dasymetric process to aid in the built-up area recognition process by taking Kerala as a case study. The method utilises a set of ancillary information to derive a probability surface. The ancillary information used here includes distance from road junctions, distance from road network, population density, built-up space visible in the LISS III image, the population of the region, and the household size. The methodology employs logistic regression and Monte Carlo simulation in two sub processes. The algorithm estimates the built-up area expected in the region and distributes the estimated built-up area among pixels according to the probability estimated from the ancillary information. The output of the algorithm has two components. The first component is an example scenario of the built-up area distribution. The second component is a probability surface, where the value of each pixel denotes the probability of that pixel to have a significant built-up area within it. The algorithm is validated for regions in Kerala and found to be significant. The model correctly predicted the built-up pixel count count over a validation grid of 900 m in 95.2% of the cases. The algorithm is implemented using Python and ArcGIS.