Determinants of economic growth: Different time different answer?

被引：24

作者：

Bruns, Stephan B. ^{[1
,2
,3
]}

Ioannidis, John P. A. ^{[4
,5
,6
,7
]}

机构：

[1] Hasselt Univ, Ctr Environm Sci, Martelarenlaan 42, B-3500 Hasselt, Belgium

[2] Hasselt Univ, Data Sci Inst, Martelarenlaan 42, B-3500 Hasselt, Belgium

[3] Univ Goettingen, Dept Econ, Humboldtallee 3, D-37073 Gottingen, Germany

[4] Stanford Univ, Dept Med, 1265 Welch Rd,Med Sch Off Bldg,Room X306, Stanford, CA 94305 USA

[5] Stanford Univ, Dept Hlth Res & Policy, 1265 Welch Rd,Med Sch Off Bldg,Room X306, Stanford, CA 94305 USA

[6] Stanford Univ, Dept Stat, 1265 Welch Rd,Med Sch Off Bldg,Room X306, Stanford, CA 94305 USA

[7] Stanford Univ, Meta Res Innovat Ctr Stanford, 1265 Welch Rd,Med Sch Off Bldg,Room X306, Stanford, CA 94305 USA

来源：

JOURNAL OF MACROECONOMICS | 2020年 / 63卷

关键词：

Bayesian model averaging; Growth regressions; Model uncertainty; Heterogeneity; VARIABLE SELECTION; G-PRIORS; MODEL; WORLD; NONLINEARITIES; ECONOMETRICS; UNCERTAINTY; ROBUSTNESS; JOINTNESS; REVISIONS;

D O I：

10.1016/j.jmacro.2019.103185

中图分类号：

F [经济];

学科分类号：

02 ;

摘要：

Almost all studies that use Bayesian model averaging to identify robust growth determinants focus on the growth period between 1960 and the 1990s. We apply Bayesian Model Averaging to a rolling time window of 20 and 35 years using a newly compiled dataset with 37 growth determinants for the years 1960 to 2010. Our findings indicate instabilities in the inferences on growth determinants across growth periods. In line with prior research, we find support for robust ambiguity in early growth periods, that is, cross-country growth regressions provide little support for some growth determinants being more important than others. However, determinants related to demography, education, trade, investment and to some extent religion seem to matter in the subsequent growth periods with education and demography being most important in recent growth periods.

引用

页数：14

共 47 条

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