Infestation patterns of incipient red turpentine beetle populations in fire-affected, logged and undisturbed forest stands of northern China

The red turpentine beetle (RTB) Dendroctonus valens is an alien invasive bark beetle that has become one of the most important pests of pine forests in China. In recent years, RTB has spread to the Heilihe area of northern China, where, within a short period of time, its population density has reached an incipient level. Understanding the attack behavior of RTB in the early stages of an infestation can help contain its population and avoid the transition from incipient to outbreak levels. In addition, numerous wildfires and illegal selective logging events in the Heilihe area give us the opportunity to study the attack behavior of RTB in forest stands with different disturbances. In the present study, we explored the infestation pattern of RTB in 20 wildfire-disturbed forests, 19 selectively logged forests and 42 undisturbed forests at the incipient population level. We measured stand and landscape-level variables, including stand mean diameter at breast height (DBH), canopy cover, aspect, elevation, slope and host connectivity. The landscape-level variable of host connectivity was extracted from a Sentinel2 image through graph theory. In disturbed stands, we also measured bole scorch height and the number of stumps as proxies for fire and logging intensity. Generalized linear models were used to determine the relative importance of these explanatory variables in RTB infestations. Our results showed that wildfire-disturbed and logged stands had higher RTB infestation levels than undisturbed stands and disturbance intensity was the most important predicting variable across all factors. Furthermore, stand mean DBH had a positive relationship with RTB attacks in disturbed stands. In undisturbed stands, stand-level factors such aspect and canopy cover were the main driving factors of RTB attacks rather than host connectivity. However, the role of host connectivity shifted in wildfire-disturbed stands with high fire intensity, where interconnected stands promoted RTB infestations at the 500 m and 700 m scales. Our findings are valuable for identifying stands that are more vulnerable to RTB attacks and prioritizing management interventions aimed at controlling beetle populations.