Modeling the Insurgent Activities with a Geographic Information System: A Case Study from Iraq

This paper investigates the root causes of insurgency and exploits a Geographic Information System (GIS) to model the effects of terrain and urban infrastructure on insurgent behavior. It develops a mathematical model that can predict the likelihood of an individual turning into an insurgent based on various contributory factors. Insurgency in Iraq and Afghanistan has been on the rise, primarily to fight the United States (U.S.)-led coalition forces. Insurgents often seek complex terrain and urban infrastructure to ambush U.S.-led coalition forces which are carrying out military missions in Iraq and Afghanistan. Using examples from Iraq we model spatial and temporal trends in insurgent activities with a GIS, which may help understand the overall insurgency and behavior of insurgents who carry out attacks against U.S-led coalition forces.