A Latent Markov Model with Covariates to Study Unobserved Heterogeneity among Fertility Patterns of Couples Employing Natural Family Planning Methods

被引：3

作者：

Pennoni, Fulvia ^{[1
]}

Barbato, Michele ^{[2
]}

Del Zoppo, Serena ^{[2
]}

机构：

[1] Univ Milano Bicocca, Dept Stat & Quantitat Methods, Milan, Italy

[2] Ambrosiano Ctr Nat Family Planning Methods CA Me, Milan, Italy

来源：

FRONTIERS IN PUBLIC HEALTH | 2017年 / 5卷

关键词：

expectation-maximization algorithm; latent stochastic process; natural family planning methods; predictive probabilities; state dependence; TIMING INTERCOURSE; BAYESIAN SELECTION; LONGITUDINAL DATA; OPTIMAL RULES; CONCEPTION; TIME; PROBABILITIES; PREGNANCY; MUCUS;

D O I：

10.3389/fpubh.2017.00186

中图分类号：

R1 [预防医学、卫生学];

学科分类号：

1004 ; 120402 ;

摘要：

Purpose: We use the historical data from the European Study of Daily Fecundability and we develop an algorithm to determine the fertile window in a woman's cycle according to the rules of the C.A.Me.N. symptothermal method proposed by the Centro Ambrosiano Metodi Naturali. Our aim is to identify variables acting on the probability of conception by considering the fertile window and factors that cannot be explained by employing the observed covariates of individuals and couples. Methods: We adopt the latent Markov model with covariates tailored for data collected at times when a latent process detects the dependence across fertile periods of each woman's cycle. We consider measurement errors, transitions between conception and non-conception, and the prediction of conception rate over the fertile windows. Conclusion: We find that the conception pattern is mainly related to sexual intercourse behavior during the fertile window and to previous pregnancies. For the cohort under study, we predict a steep decline in the average conception rate across fertile windows.

引用

页数：9