Modifying FHANTM 2.0 to estimate phosphorus concentrations in runoff from Mid-Atlantic Coastal Plain soils

Phosphorus lost from agricultural soils has been identified as a nonpoint source pollutant of surface waters in Delaware and throughout the Mid-Atlantic Coastal Plain. The Field Hydrologic and Nutrient Transport Model (FHANTM) 2.0 can help identify areas with a high potential for P loss, but the method used to estimate P concentrations in runoff waters needs reevaluation. The equation P-d = KP(o)t(alpha)W(beta) has been proposed to predict P desorption from soil to runoff. To test this equation for use in Delaware and the Mid-Atlantic Coastal Plain, we conducted rainfall simulations for 14 Delaware and Maryland soils packed into 5 by 20 by 100 cm boxes at a rainfall intensity of 7.5 cm h(-1) and a slope of 5% for 30 min. We collected all runoff and measured an average soluble P concentration in runoff for the entire simulation. We predicted P concentrations using the above equation and compared them with measured values. Predicted values were well correlated to measured values (r(2) = 0.78), but P concentrations were overpredicted by an average of 20 times. After we added a calibration factor to the equation based on the amount of sediment lost in runoff during the rainfall simulation, measured and predicted soluble P concentrations exhibited a nearly 1:1 relationship. Results suggest that eroded sediment in runoff may resorb P from the runoff solution, causing the desorption equation to overpredict soluble P concentrations in runoff.