Prediction of the Complication Risk in Drug-Resistant Tuberculosis After Surgery: Development and Assessment of a Novel Nomogram

Background: Surgery is increasingly accepted as an adjunctive approach to treat multidrug-resistant tuberculosis (MDR-TB) or extensively drug-resistant tuberculosis (XDR-TB). However, a model that includes all factors to predict the risk of postoperative complications is lacking. Methods: We developed a prediction model based on 138 patients who had undergone surgery as treatment for drug-resistant tuberculosis (DR-TB) after 24 months. Clinical features on the lesion type (L), treatment history (T), physiologic status of the body (B), and surgical approach (S) were evaluated. Multivariable logistic regression analysis was conducted by clinical features selected in the least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (LASSO) to build a nomogram. The discrimination, calibration, and clinical usefulness of the nomogram were assessed using the C-Index, calibration plots, and decision curves. Internal validation was assessed using bootstrapping. Results: The nomogram contained the features L, B, T, cavitary, recurrent chest infection (RCI) and MDR-TB/XDR-TB. The model displayed good discrimination with a C-Index of 0.879 (95% CI: 0.799-0.967). A high C-Index of 0.824 was achieved in the interval validation. Decision-curve analysis showed that the nomogram was clinically useful if intervention was decided at the non-adherence possibility threshold of 4%. Conclusion: Our novel nomogram could be used conveniently to predict postoperative complication risk in DR-TB patients.