Atmospheric response to anomalous autumn surface forcing in the Arctic Basin

Data from four reanalyses are analyzed to evaluate the downstream atmospheric response both spatially and temporally to anomalous autumn surface forcing in the Arctic Basin. Running weekly mean skin temperature anomalies were classified using the self-organizing map algorithm. The resulting classes were used to both composite the initial atmospheric state and determine how the atmosphere evolves from this state. The strongest response was to anomalous forcing-positive skin temperature and total surface energy flux anomalies and reduced sea ice concentration-in the Barents and Kara Seas. Analysis of the evolution of the atmospheric state for 12 weeks after the initial forcing showed a persistence in the anomalies in this area which led to a buildup of heat in the atmosphere. This resulted in positive 1000-500 hPa thickness and high-pressure circulation anomalies in this area which were associated with cold air advection and temperatures over much of central and northern Asia. Evaluation of days with the opposite forcing (i.e., negative skin temperature anomalies and increased sea ice concentration in the Barents and Kara Seas) showed a mirrored, opposite downstream atmospheric response. Other patterns with positive skin temperature anomalies in the Arctic Basin did not show the same response most likely because the anomalies were not as strong nor did they persist for as many weeks following the initial forcing.