Prediction of Cultivated Area in China Based on Regression and Grey System Methods

In order to analyze the effective methods of predicting cultivated area in China and its quantity in the next 12 years, we predicted cultivated area quantity in 2008 by using cultivated area quantity in 1949-2007 based on regression and grey system methods, their prediction precision sorting was prediction using 1969-2007 cultivated area data with Quadeatic regression model(its absolute error was 0.04%) > prediction using 1990-2007 cultivated area data with GM(1,1) model (its absolute error was 0.07%) > prediction using 1998-2007 cultivated area internal structures data with GM(1,1) model (its absolute error was 0.65%) > prediction using 1949-2007 cultivated area data with Quadeatic regression model(its absolute error was 0.89%). Then chose the optimal method to predict Chinese cultivated area quantity in the next 12 years, the results showed that there would be a tendency of slow declining in 2009-2020, and cultivated area quantity in 2020 would be 112386.1 x 10(3)hm(2).