How economic crises affect inflation beliefs: Evidence from the Covid-19 pandemic

被引：57

作者：

Armantier, Olivier ^{[1
]}

Kosar, Gizem ^{[1
]}

Pomerantz, Rachel ^{[1
]}

Skandalis, Daphne ^{[2
]}

Smith, Kyle ^{[3
]}

Topa, Giorgio ^{[1
]}

van der Klaauw, Wilbert ^{[1
]}

机构：

[1] Fed Reserve Bank New York, New York, NY 10045 USA

[2] Univ Copenhagen, Copenhagen, Denmark

[3] NYU, Sch Med, New York, NY 10003 USA

来源：

JOURNAL OF ECONOMIC BEHAVIOR & ORGANIZATION | 2021年 / 189卷

关键词：

Inflation expectations; Inflation uncertainty and disagreement; Covid-19; pandemic; EXPECTATIONS; UNCERTAINTY; FIRMS;

D O I：

10.1016/j.jebo.2021.04.036

中图分类号：

F [经济];

学科分类号：

02 ;

摘要：

This paper studies how inflation beliefs reported in the New York Fed's Survey of Consumer Expectations have evolved over the first six months of the Covid-19 pandemic. We find that household inflation expectations responded slowly and mostly at the short-term horizon. In contrast, the data reveal immediate and unprecedented increases in individual inflation uncertainty and in inflation disagreement across respondents. Consistent with precautionary saving, the rise in inflation uncertainty is shown to be associated with how respondents used the stimulus checks they received as part of the 2020 CARES Act. We also find evidence of a strong polarization in inflation beliefs and we identify differences across demographic groups. (c) 2021 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

引用

页码：443 / 469

页数：27

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