Forecasting and the influence of socioeconomic factors on municipal solid waste generation: A literature review

Managing municipal solid waste is one of the most significant environmental challenges of the 21st century. Municipalities have been facing difficulties in managing their solid waste (SW) due to, among other reasons, lack of information. Generating data on SW generation (SWG) is difficult because sampling, weighing, and classifying SW require time and resources, which can often be scarce. Estimating SWG through socioeconomic factors mitigates this issue, but it is difficult to benchmark information due to the heterogeneity among municipalities. This paper aims to investigate the relationship between SWG and socioeconomic factors through a systematic literature review. The results were classified according to characteristics of SW stream, geographic scale, data type, and modelling technique. Most studies used secondary data, and the effects were analyzed by linear regression, studying mixed waste streams at a municipality level. More than 300 other factors were identified, and the most recurrent are gross domestic product, population, income, household size, energy, and water consumption. Some of these factors present the same trend in the results, regardless of the differences among studies; other factors need further investigation to identify their effects on SWG, such as education and population density. Knowing the factors that influence SWG and its nature might help stakeholders better predict SWG, plan SW management, develop more accurate and fair charging schemes, predict future scenarios, and create better policies.