Numerical Modeling of the Natural and Manmade Factors Influencing Past and Current Changes in Polar, Mid-Latitude and Tropical Ozone

被引：11

作者：

Smyshlyaev, Sergei P. ^{[1
]}

Galin, Vener Y. ^{[2
]}

Blakitnaya, Polina A. ^{[1
]}

Jakovlev, Andrei R. ^{[1
]}

机构：

[1] Russian State Hydrometeorol Univ, Voronezhskaya Str 79, St Petersburg 192007, Russia

[2] RAS, Inst Numer Math, Gubkina Str 8, Moscow 119991, Russia

来源：

ATMOSPHERE | 2020年 / 11卷 / 01期

基金：

俄罗斯科学基金会; 俄罗斯基础研究基金会;

关键词：

stratospheric ozone; natural and anthropogenic factors; numerical modeling; satellite observations; trend estimations; CHEMISTRY-TRANSPORT MODEL; TOTAL COLUMN OZONE; 2-DIMENSIONAL MODEL; SAGE-II; TRENDS; TOMS; STRATOSPHERE; VARIABILITY; CIRCULATION; SENSITIVITY;

D O I：

10.3390/atmos11010076

中图分类号：

X [环境科学、安全科学];

学科分类号：

08 ; 0830 ;

摘要：

A chemistry-climate model of the lower and middle atmosphere is used to compare the role of natural and anthropogenic factors in the observed variability of stratospheric ozone. Numerical experiments have been carried out on several scenarios of separate and combined effects of solar activity, stratospheric aerosol, sea surface temperature, greenhouse gases, and ozone-depleting substances emissions on ozone for the period from 1979 to 2020. Simulations for the past and present periods are compared to the results of ground-based and satellite observations. Estimates of observed trends in column total ozone for the entire period 1980-2018 and separately for the late twentieth and early twenty-first century are presented.

引用

页数：16

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