Assessing the Potential Impacts of the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam on Water Resources and Soil Salinity in the Nile Delta, Egypt

Several studies have reported that the construction of the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD) could have severe effects on the water resources in downstream countries, especially Egypt. These effects include changes in surface water level, groundwater levels in shallow and deep aquifers, saltwater intrusion, and increases in soil salinity, which could affect crop yields. This paper assesses the potential impacts of the GERD on the Nile Delta, Egypt. It includes the effects of reducing surface water levels (SWL) and changing the crop patterns at the groundwater levels (GWL), in addition to the effect of cultivating crops that consume less water on soil salinity. A pilot area is selected in the east of the Nile Delta for the assessment. The results of the study revealed that GWL is directly proportional to SWL. Comparing the case study of 2012, when SWL was reduced by 50%, the GWL decreased from 5.0 m to 2.0 m. After adjustment, the crop patterns from rice to other crops decreased the GWL to 1.30 m. Additionally, the results showed that there is a significant relationship between soil salinity and crop patterns. Soil salinity increased during the cultivation of the Delta with non-rice crops, such as grapes. Salinity increased from 0.45 S/m after 10 years of simulation to 0.48 S/m. This estimation highlights the undesirable effects of the GERD on Egypt's water resources, soil salinity, crop yields, and national income.