Policy implications of China's rural household coal governance from the perspective of the spillover effect

China's Rural Civilian Bulk Coal (RCBC) governance is proceeding in an orderly manner, but it is encountering some difficulties, such as the establishment of an energy guarantee mechanism, the selection of a promotion pilot, and economic cost control. This study uses the Multi-Model Comparison and Regression Optimisation of Spatio-Temporal Analysis (MMC&ROSTA) technology of RCBC consumption to analyse the provincial panel data, and it examines the time effect and spatial spillover effect on RCBC consumption to solve the governance problems. The results show that (1) RCBC has an "inverted Ushaped" income effect, and urbanisation and coal resource endowments have negative and positive effects on RCBC, respectively; (2) RCBC consumption has an inter-provincial demonstration effect, and the economic development linkage, population movement, and resource market competition will all bring about the spatial spillover of RCBC consumption; and (3) residents' energy use habits (REUH) will increase RCBC consumption and delay the change of RCBC consumption with increasing income. In summary, the governance of RCBC should adhere to the principles of inter-provincial coordination, use inner-provincial conditions as a basis to both determine governance guidelines and establish a subsidy mechanism and use resource competition to guide changes in REUH while coordinating with urbanisation. (c) 2021 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.