The effects of a rise in cigarette price on cigarette consumption, tobacco taxation revenues, and of smoking-related deaths in 28 EU countries- applying threshold regression modelling

被引:52
作者
Yeh, Chun-Yuan [1 ]
Schafferer, Christian [1 ]
Lee, Jie-Min [2 ]
Ho, Li-Ming [3 ]
Hsieh, Chi-Jung [4 ]
机构
[1] Overseas Chinese Univ, Dept Int Trade, Taichung, Taiwan
[2] Natl Kaohsiung Marine Univ, Dept Shipping & Transportat Management, 142 Hai Chuan Rd Nan Tzu, Kaohsiung, Taiwan
[3] Natl Kaohsiung Marine Univ, Dept Marine Leisure Management, Kaohsiung, Taiwan
[4] Natl Changhua Univ Educ, Dept Finance, Changhua, Taiwan
关键词
Cigarette price; Cigarette consumption; Threshold regression model-Smoking-attributable mortality; European Union; HEALTH; PREVALENCE; DEMAND; TAXES;
D O I
10.1186/s12889-017-4685-x
中图分类号
R1 [预防医学、卫生学];
学科分类号
1004 ; 120402 ;
摘要
Background: European Union public healthcare expenditure on treating smoking and attributable diseases is estimated at over (sic)25bn annually. The reduction of tobacco consumption has thus become one of the major social policies of the EU. This study investigates the effects of price hikes on cigarette consumption, tobacco tax revenues and smoking-caused deaths in 28 EU countries. Methods: Employing panel data for the years 2005 to 2014 from Euromonitor International, the World Bank and the World Health Organization, we used income as a threshold variable and applied threshold regression modelling to estimate the elasticity of cigarette prices and to simulate the effect of price fluctuations. Results: The results showed that there was an income threshold effect on cigarette prices in the 28 EU countries that had a gross national income (GNI) per capita lower than US$5418, with a maximum cigarette price elasticity of -1.227. The results of the simulated analysis showed that a rise of 10% in cigarette price would significantly reduce cigarette consumption as well the total death toll caused by smoking in all the observed countries, but would be most effective in Bulgaria and Romania, followed by Latvia and Poland. Additionally, an increase in the number of MPOWER tobacco control policies at the highest level of achievment would help reduce cigarette consumption. Conclusions: It is recommended that all EU countries levy higher tobacco taxes to increase cigarette prices, and thus in effect reduce cigarette consumption. The subsequent increase in tobacco tax revenues would be instrumental in covering expenditures related to tobacco prevention and control programs.
引用
收藏
页数:9
相关论文
共 29 条
[21]   Smoking-related deaths averted due to three years of policy progress [J].
Levy, David T. ;
Ellis, Jennifer A. ;
Mays, Darren ;
Huang, An-Tsun .
BULLETIN OF THE WORLD HEALTH ORGANIZATION, 2013, 91 (07) :509-518
[22]  
Nguyen L., 2012, Demand for Tobacco in Europe: An Econometric Analysis of 11 Countries for the PPACTE Project, Report 6/2012 for the PPACTE Project
[23]  
Ransom Kent., 2000, Tobacco Control in Developing Countries, P427
[24]   Walking, exercising, and smoking: does neighborhood matter? [J].
Ross, CE .
SOCIAL SCIENCE & MEDICINE, 2000, 51 (02) :265-274
[25]   Residential area deprivation predicts smoking habit independently of individual educational level and occupational social class. A cross sectional study in the Norfolk cohort of the European Investigation into Cancer (EPIC-Norfolk) [J].
Shohaimi, S ;
Luben, R ;
Wareham, N ;
Day, N ;
Bingham, S ;
Welch, A ;
Oakes, S ;
Khaw, KT .
JOURNAL OF EPIDEMIOLOGY AND COMMUNITY HEALTH, 2003, 57 (04) :270-276
[26]   CIGARETTE-SMOKING BY SOCIOECONOMIC GROUP, SEX, AND AGE - EFFECTS OF PRICE, INCOME, AND HEALTH PUBLICITY [J].
TOWNSEND, J ;
RODERICK, P ;
COOPER, J .
BMJ-BRITISH MEDICAL JOURNAL, 1994, 309 (6959) :923-927
[27]  
Waters H., 2010, The economics of tobacco and tobacco taxation in Mexico
[29]  
WHO, 2010, WHO TECHNICAL MANUAL ON TOBACCO TAX ADMINISTRARTION, P1