This paper summarizes the results of a first-of-its-kind holistic, integrated economic analysis of the potential role of carbon dioxide (CO2) capture and storage (CCS) technologies across the regional segments of the United States (U.S.) electric power sector, over the time frame 20052045, in response to two hypothetical emissions control policies analyzed against two potential energy supply futures that include updated and substantially higher projected prices for natural gas. This paper's detailed analysis is made possible by combining two specialized models developed at Battelle: the Battelle CO2-GIS to determine the regional capacity and cost of CO2 transport and geologic storage; and the Battelle Carbon Management Electricity Model, an electric system optimal capacity expansion and dispatch model, to examine the investment and operation of electric power technologies with CCS against the background of other options. A key feature of this paper's analysis is an attempt to explicitly model the inherent heterogeneities that exist in both the nation's current and future electricity generation infrastructure and in its candidate deep geologic CO2 storage formations. Overall, between 180 and 580 gigawatts (GW) of coal-fired integrated gasification combined cycle with CCS (IGCC + CCS) capacity is built by 2045 in these four scenarios, requiring between 12 and 41 gigatonnes of CO2 (GtCO(2)) storage in regional deep geologic reservoirs across the U.S. Nearly all of this CO2 is from new IGCC + CCS systems, which start to deploy after 2025. Relatively little IGCC + CCS capacity is built before that time, primarily under unique niche 9pp9rtunities. For the most part, CO2 emissions prices will likely need to be sustained at over $20/tonne CO2 before CCS begins to deploy on a large scale within the electric power sector. within these broad national trends, a highly nuanced picture of CCS deployment across the U.S. emerges. Across the four scenarios studied here, power plant builders and operations within some North American Electric Reliability Council (NERC) regions do not employ any CCS while other regions build more than 100 GW of CCS-enabled generation capacity. One region sees as much as 50% of its geologic CO2 Storage reservoirs' total theoretical capacity consumed by 2045, while most of the regions still have more than 90% of their potential storage capacity available to meet storage needs in the second half of the century and beyond. A detailed presentation of the results for power plant builds and operation in two key regions: ECAR in the Midwest and ERCOT in Texas, provides further insight into the diverse set of economic decisions that generate the national and aggregate regional results. (C) 2007 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
