ANALYSIS AND FORECAST OF TOURIST ARRIVALS IN CROATIA

Purpose - The main objective of this paper is to estimate the number of tourist arrivals in Croatia by 2025. Such estimates may be of value for at least two reasons. The first one considers the importance of the tourism industry in Croatian economy, given that Croatia has comparative advantage in the international environment, and the second reason is to be found in two-digit growth rates of Croatian tourism in the recent period, all of which leads to the fact that Croatia has not used its full tourist potentials yet. Design - The research relies on a secondary data and quantitative methods. Methodology - The analysis of the number of tourist arrivals in Croatia is based on methods of descriptive statistics. To estimate the number of tourist arrivals in Croatia, two groups of extrapolation functions were selected: 1) functions without saturation and 2) functions with saturation limitation. The statistical analysis of the collected secondary data in order to choose the most appropriate function is based on data on the movement of tourist arrivals from 1996 to 2017. Approach - Decision making in tourism always requires an estimate of the number of tourist arrivals. The applied scientific methodology is used to ensure the selection of an extrapolation model that will give the realistic estimate of the number of tourist arrivals to Croatia by 2025. Findings - The main findings of this paper point to the fact that the number of tourist arrivals in Croatia will continue to grow in the coming period, and that the Croatian tourist market does not show saturation, i.e. that the functions of "S" shape for the modelling and estimation of tourist arrivals by 2025, are inappropriate. Originality of the research - This study gives the relevant and realistic information about tourist arrivals in Croatia by 2025. So, this information could be helpful to tourist managers of all levels in making business decisions.