Dynamical seasonal predictability of the Arctic Oscillation using a CGCM

被引：49

作者：

Sun, Jianqi ^{[1
,2
]}

Ahn, Joong-Bae ^{[2
]}

机构：

[1] Chinese Acad Sci, Inst Atmospher Phys, Nansen Zhu Int Res Ctr NZC, Beijing, Peoples R China

[2] Pusan Natl Univ, Div Earth Environm Syst, Pusan 609735, South Korea

来源：

INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF CLIMATOLOGY | 2015年 / 35卷 / 07期

关键词：

Arctic Oscillation; CGCM; predictability; ensemble hindcast; winter climate; NORTH-ATLANTIC OSCILLATION; ASIAN WINTER MONSOON; ANNULAR MODES; SUMMER MONSOON; EXTRATROPICAL CIRCULATION; GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT; DUST STORM; CLIMATE; SEA; IMPACTS;

D O I：

10.1002/joc.4060

中图分类号：

P4 [大气科学（气象学）];

学科分类号：

0706 ; 070601 ;

摘要：

The potential dynamical predictability of the winter Arctic Oscillation (AO) is investigated using the ensemble hindcast from the Pusan National University coupled general circulation model (PNU-CGCM) over the 30-year period of 1981-2010. The analysis indicates that PNU-CGCM can not only reproduce the spatial distribution of the AO but also significantly simulate the AO's temporal variability. In addition, the coupled model performs well in terms of predicting the AO's impact on the Northern Hemisphere winter climate. These results reveal the coupled model's potential for dynamical forecasting of the climate over the mid-latitude to high latitude.

引用

收藏

页码：1342 / 1353

页数：12

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