Boarding Time Estimation Using the Passenger Density Distribution on the Bus

Accurate predictions of bus service time are a prerequisite to improve the efficiency of bus transit. Field observations identified the degree of passenger crowding on the bus as one of the primary causes for the unpredictability of passengers' average boarding time (ABT). Consequently, the internal areas of buses were divided for the first time to assess the impact of the passenger density distribution (PDD) on the ABT, using field data. An effective BPR function was proposed that accurately predicts the passengers' ABT. Then, to show the influence of passenger movement preference and density distribution on ABT, a new floor field model was developed. Calibration and validation results indicate that the model can reproduce the dynamic moving process of passengers' distribution on the bus and clarify the influence of PDD on ABT. Finally, three bus design strategies are proposed to enhance boarding efficiency, and the simulation results show that the optimal strategy improves passenger ABT and improve the operational performance of bus transit. These findings provide theoretical support for bus design as well as for bus operation.