IMPACT OF SEASONALITY AND RAINFALL ON TEA PRODUCTION IN SRI LANKA

被引：0

作者：

Dalpatadu, Rohan J. ^{[1
]}

Kodikara, Kasun S.

Singh, Ashok K.

机构：

[1] Univ Nevada, Dept Math Sci, Las Vegas, NV 89154 USA

来源：

ADVANCES AND APPLICATIONS IN STATISTICS | 2019年 / 59卷 / 02期

关键词：

tea estate; seasonal; time series; ARMAX; rainfall;

D O I：

10.17654/AS059020103

中图分类号：

O21 [概率论与数理统计]; C8 [统计学];

学科分类号：

020208 ; 070103 ; 0714 ;

摘要：

The most popular drink in the world is tea, and ideal conditions for tea cultivation are temperatures between 21 degrees C to 29 degrees C, rainfall of 150-250cm with no stagnation of water, and humus rich soil mixed with lime and iron. In this article, the effect of seasonality and amount of rainfall on tea production in Sri Lanka is investigated via the time series method of autoregressive integrated moving average modeling with predictors (ARMAX); the monthly data for this study is collected from eight tea estates in Sri Lanka, over the years 2009-2017. Our results indicate that, with one exception, rainfall does not significantly affect tea production, possibly due to each tea estate receiving rainfall that is sufficient for tea production. Our results also show that a total of six out of the eight tea estates exhibit increasing trend during the study period.

引用

页码：103 / 123

页数：21

共 12 条

[1]

[Anonymous], 2017, R LANG ENV STAT COMP

[2]

[Anonymous], 2015, World Tea Production and Trade: Current and Future Developments

[3]

Bandara N. P. S. N., 2015, 230 M EXP EXT FOR FE

[4]

Fernando PIN., 2016, KELANIYA J MANAGE, V5, P64, DOI DOI 10.4038/KJM.V5I2.7518

[5] The impact of changing climate on perennial crops: the case of tea production in Sri Lanka [J].

Gunathilaka, R. P. Dayani ;

Smart, James C. R. ;

Fleming, Christopher M. .

CLIMATIC CHANGE, 2017, 140 (3-4) :577-592

[6]

Karunaratna D. D. R. M., 2014, KELANIYA J MANAGEMEN, V3, P63

[7] ESTIMATION, PREDICTION, AND INTERPOLATION FOR ARIMA MODELS WITH MISSING DATA [J].

KOHN, R ;

ANSLEY, CF .

JOURNAL OF THE AMERICAN STATISTICAL ASSOCIATION, 1986, 81 (395) :751-761

[8]

Koththagoda K.C., 2016, KELANIYA J MANAG, V5, P81, DOI [10.4038/kjm.v5i1.7507, DOI 10.4038/KJM.V5I1.7507]

[9]

Petris G, 2009, USE R, P1, DOI 10.1007/b135794_1

[10] MissForest-non-parametric missing value imputation for mixed-type data [J].

Stekhoven, Daniel J. ;

Buehlmann, Peter .

BIOINFORMATICS, 2012, 28 (01) :112-118

← 1 2 →