Surgeon-specific risk stratification model for early complications after complex adult spinal deformity surgery

Study designRetrospective outcome analysis of a prospectively collected single-surgeon casesObjectivesIdentify risk factors for complications in adult surgical spine deformity patients, develop a surgeon-specific risk stratification model, and predict the likelihood of 6-week postoperative complications based on prospectively collected preoperative measures.Summary of background dataAdult spinal deformity surgery is challenging technically as well as economically. Although many risk factors are well known for spine surgery, complications after complex spine deformity surgery remain a significant problem worldwide.MethodsWe reviewed 124 consecutive adult patients who have undergone instrumented spinal fusion with nine or more levels over a 21-month period in a single institution. We extracted data from patient medical records. Complications within the 6 weeks after surgery were identified. Univariate and logistic regression analyses (LRAs) were implemented. We generated a formula based on the LRA predictive algorithm-a numeric probabilistic likelihood statistic representing an individual patient's risk of developing a complication.ResultsA total of 34 (27%) patients had complications that were categorized into either 21 (17%) medical or 17 (13.7%) surgical complications, including 3 (2.4%) proximal junctional kyphosis, 8 (6.4%) neurologic deficit, and 9 (6.5%) any wound issue. The predictive model was significant and calibrated using area under the receiver operating characteristics curve analysis. The model correctly classified 83.1% cases. Patients with a three-column osteotomy or history of deep vein thrombosis have 6 and 19 times higher overall complications, respectively, compared with patients without. Patients with a three-column osteotomy or body mass index>30, respectively, are 24 and 11 times more likely to develop a wound complication. Patients with a three-column osteotomy have 10 times higher rates of surgical complication.ConclusionsComplex spine deformity is often associated with complications. No single variable effectively predicts postoperative complications for such a complicated situation. However, when all risk factors are considered, patients with three-column osteotomy have a significantly higher chance to develop early complications.Level of EvidenceLevel IV.