Impact of climate change on floods in the Brahmaputra basin using CMIP5 decadal predictions

被引:85
作者
Apurv, Tushar [1 ]
Mehrotra, Rajeshwar [2 ]
Sharma, Ashish [2 ]
Goyal, Manish Kumar [3 ]
Dutta, Subashisa [3 ]
机构
[1] Indian Inst Technol, Dept Civil Engn, Kanpur 208016, Uttar Pradesh, India
[2] Univ New S Wales, Sch Civil & Environm Engn, Sydney, NSW 2052, Australia
[3] Indian Inst Technol Guwahati, Dept Civil Engn, Gauhati 781039, Assam, India
关键词
Floods; CMIP5; Decadal predictions; Quantile-quantile transform; Rainfall spells; Cumulative distribution functions (CDFs); FREQUENCY-ANALYSIS; COPULAS; EVENTS;
D O I
10.1016/j.jhydrol.2015.04.056
中图分类号
TU [建筑科学];
学科分类号
0813 ;
摘要
Climate change has the potential to intensify the hydrological cycle, leading to more intense precipitation with associated changes in the intensity, frequency and severity of floods. Climate variability and change beyond a few years to a few decades ahead have significant social, economic, and environmental implications. It is believed that some aspects of this decadal variability could be predictable for a decade or longer in advance. Keeping this in mind, phase five of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5), for the first time, provides 10-30 years predictions obtained from the General Circulation Models (GCMs). This study aims to analyse the CMIP5 decadal predictions for precipitation over five sub-basins of river Brahmaputra. Daily precipitation data of five GCMs, namely F-GOALS-g2, BCC-CSM1-1, IPSL-CM5A, CanCM4 and MRI-CGCM3 are used for this assessment. Empirical relationships between the basin averaged rainfall wet spell (storm) properties and the characteristics of the floods are formulated for storms which lead to significant short-term flood response. Following this, the changes in the flood behaviour in the future are derived on the basis of changes in the characteristics of wet rainfall spells in 2010-2020. The results suggest an increase in the number of spells with higher rainfall and longer duration which can lead to increase in peak flood and the total flood volume. (C) 2015 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
引用
收藏
页码:281 / 291
页数:11
相关论文
共 29 条
[1]  
[Anonymous], 2013, Turn Down the Heat: Climate Extremes, Regional Impacts, and the Case for Resilience, DOI DOI 10.1596/978-1-4648-0055-9
[2]   THE FUTURE OF DISTRIBUTED MODELS - MODEL CALIBRATION AND UNCERTAINTY PREDICTION [J].
BEVEN, K ;
BINLEY, A .
HYDROLOGICAL PROCESSES, 1992, 6 (03) :279-298
[3]  
Datta B, 2004, WTR SCI TEC LIBR, V47, P139
[4]  
Eriksson M., 2009, The changing Himalayas: impact of climate change on water resources and livelihoods in the greater Himalayas
[5]   Multivariate hydrological frequency analysis using copulas -: art. no. W01101 [J].
Favre, AC ;
El Adlouni, S ;
Perreault, L ;
Thiémonge, N ;
Bobée, B .
WATER RESOURCES RESEARCH, 2004, 40 (01) :W011011-W0110112
[6]   Impact of climate change on the stream flow of the lower Brahmaputra: trends in high and low flows based on discharge-weighted ensemble modelling [J].
Gain, A. K. ;
Immerzeel, W. W. ;
Weiland, F. C. Sperna ;
Bierkens, M. F. P. .
HYDROLOGY AND EARTH SYSTEM SCIENCES, 2011, 15 (05) :1537-1545
[7]   Impact of climate change on flood characteristics in Brahmaputra basin using a macro-scale distributed hydrological model [J].
Ghosh, Shyamal ;
Dutta, Subashisa .
JOURNAL OF EARTH SYSTEM SCIENCE, 2012, 121 (03) :637-657
[8]   Climate change impact assessment: Uncertainty modeling with imprecise probability [J].
Ghosh, Subimal ;
Mujumdar, P. P. .
JOURNAL OF GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH-ATMOSPHERES, 2009, 114
[9]   Long-range forecasting and the Global Framework for Climate Services [J].
Graham, R. J. ;
Yun, W. -T. ;
Kim, J. ;
Kumar, A. ;
Jones, D. ;
Bettio, L. ;
Gagnon, N. ;
Kolli, R. K. ;
Smith, D. .
CLIMATE RESEARCH, 2011, 47 (1-2) :47-55
[10]   Design hyetograph analysis with 3-copula function [J].
Grimaldi, S ;
Serinaldi, F .
HYDROLOGICAL SCIENCES JOURNAL-JOURNAL DES SCIENCES HYDROLOGIQUES, 2006, 51 (02) :223-238