Exchange Rate Forecasting and Value-at-Risk Estimation on Indonesian Currency Using Copula Method

This study aims to determine the future value and the value-at-risk estimation of four selected currencies, namely United States Dollar (USD), Australian Dollar (AUD), European Union Euro (EUR) and Japanese Yen (JPY) against Indonesian Rupiah (IDR). The Monte-Carlo simulation is implemented to estimate the future value of each currency relationship and integrating it with the concept from the copula method; the risk value estimation is conducted using Value-at-Risk (VaR), and the VaR estimation is within the range of 90%, 95% and 99% confidence interval. The copula method we use in this study is Clayton copula because it has the highest log-likelihood value compared to Frank and Gumbel copula; with an addition, each currency uses their regressive model to see if the selected exchange rates have the characteristic of a seasonal or non-seasonal pattern. The result we obtain in this study are JPY/IDR, and EUR/IDR relationships have the highest simulated loss and estimated risk values in each confidence interval.