Dynamics of the seasonal variation of the North Equatorial Current bifurcation

The dynamics of the seasonal variation of the North Equatorial Current (NEC) bifurcation is studied using a 1.5-layer nonlinear reduced-gravity Pacific basin model and a linear, first-mode baroclinic Rossby wave model. The model-simulated bifurcation latitude exhibits a distinct seasonal cycle with the southernmost latitude in June and the northernmost latitude in November, consistent with observational analysis. It is found that the seasonal migration of the NEC bifurcation latitude (NBL) not only is determined by wind locally in the tropics, as suggested in previous studies, but is also significantly intensified by the extratropical wind through coastal Kelvin waves. The model further demonstrates that the amplitude of the NEC bifurcation is also associated with stratification. A strong (weak) stratification leads to a fast (slow) phase speed of first-mode baroclinic Rossby waves, and thus large (small) annual range of the bifurcation latitude. Therefore, it is expected that in a warm climate the NBL should have a large range of annual migration.