The impact of the uncertainty of dike breach development time on flood hazard

被引：25

作者：

Vorogushyn, Sergiy ^{[1
]}

Apel, Heiko ^{[1
]}

Merz, Bruno ^{[1
]}

机构：

[1] Deutsch GeoForschungsZentrum GFZ, Sect Hydrol 5 4, D-14473 Potsdam, Germany

来源：

PHYSICS AND CHEMISTRY OF THE EARTH | 2011年 / 36卷 / 7-8期

关键词：

Flood hazard; Dike failure; Breach development time; Uncertainty; RISK; PREDICTIONS; INUNDATION;

D O I：

10.1016/j.pce.2011.01.005

中图分类号：

P [天文学、地球科学];

学科分类号：

07 ;

摘要：

The impact of uncertainty of dike breach development time on breach probabilities of downstream dikes and flood hazard was investigated by means of a Monte-Carlo-based probabilistic-deterministic flood hazard model. Three scenarios of breach development time were compared - one fixed-time scenario and two scenarios with stochastically generated breach development time. For the latter two scenarios, the dependency between the ultimate breach width and breach development time was modelled using a fully-dependent and a fully-independent copula. The simulation results suggest that in view of uncertainty in the flood hydrograph shape, dike breach locations, breach points in time and ultimate breach widths, the uncertainty due to the dike breach development time and dependence structure with the ultimate breach width should not be neglected when simulating multiple interdependent breaches. A significant difference in dike failure probabilities was simulated for a number of dikes in a 100-year flood scenario. Large changes in flood hazard are, however, relatively unlikely for a selected river reach. (C) 2011 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

引用

页码：319 / 323

页数：5

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