A Method for Determination of Accident Probability in the Construction Industry

被引:16
作者
Bilir, Senem [1 ]
Gurcanli, G. Emre [1 ]
机构
[1] Tech Univ Istanbul, Dept Civil Engn, Istanbul, Turkey
来源
TEKNIK DERGI | 2018年 / 29卷 / 04期
关键词
Construction safety; accident probability; exposure; man-hour values; Poisson distribution; risk assessment; SAFETY RISK; IDENTIFICATION; PREVENTION; BIM;
D O I
10.18400/tekderg.363613
中图分类号
TU [建筑科学];
学科分类号
0813 ;
摘要
Safety issues within the construction industry have been an area of concern in almost every country. In this paper, an objective and quantitative accident probability calculation approach is proposed using 623 actual construction accidents that resulted in 681 casualties between the years 2000 and 2013. Of these accidents, the first five account for 84.1% of all fatalities and 85.4% of all injuries. In total, five construction jobs (excavation, reinforced concrete work, masonry, plastering and painting, and roof work) were the focus of the study, as they account for 70.8% of all occurrences. Probability values were calculated by using the Poisson distribution, in which accident rates and exposure values were used as distribution parameters. In an industry where accidents are recorded according to non-specific standards, it is very difficult to represent the probability of accidents within a known distribution model. The proposed approach in this paper provides an objective method to obtain probabilities by using the Poisson distribution for construction accidents.
引用
收藏
页码:8537 / 8561
页数:25
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