Dynamic Analysis of Population Migration and Industrial Structure in Gansu Province China

With the development of urbanization progress and industrial structure, Gansu province has experienced a rapid and unprecedented process of rural-urban migration. Based on the time series data 1978-2011 in Gansu province, this paper attempts to present the VAR model of rural-urban migration and industrial structure change and analyzes the dynamic effect between rural-urban migration and industrial structure change in Gansu province. The result shows that rural-urban migration and industrial structure change is dynamically interacted with mutual influence from spatial evolution. Additionally, the impact of industrial structure change on rural-urban migration is stronger than that of rural-urban migration on industrial structure change. Therefore, the pace and scale of the migration and industrial structure should be determined by and consistent with economic development levels, and the local government should be prepared to deal with increasing migrants in the near future due to potential growing rural-urban gap.