Pathways and sources of lead exposure: Michigan Children's Lead Determination (the MI CHILD study)

There has been little research on childhood lead exposure pathways since the 1990s. New data from Michigan in 2017-2021 for 429 children in 345 homes included lead in blood, paint, dust, soil, water, and other housing, demographic, and behavioral metrics. Fifty-three percent of these children had blood lead (BPb) >= 5 mu g/dL. A repeated measures pathway model that accounted for multiple children in the same home was constructed using weighted least squares mean estimation and included variance-covariance model multiple imputation. Results showed that children's BPb was directly predicted by lead in settled floor house dust, child's age, season, and mouthing behavior and indirectly predicted by window sill and trough dust lead (DPb), bare soil lead (SPb), proportion of floors with carpets, and exterior building deteriorations. Paint lead (PPb) was also an indirect predictor of BPb through the soil and settled dust pathways. Water lead (WPb), water consumption and other lead sources/pathways were not significant predictors of BPb in this cohort. Although risk factors for individual children are highly variable and worthy of investigation to pinpoint their exposures, this study shows that the main direct and indirect pathways of lead exposure for most children in older housing remain paint and the contaminated dust and soil it generates. Pathway analyses in other jurisdictions using current data should be performed to confirm these results. This study suggests both DPb and BPb in high-risk homes may have declined since the 1990s and that lead in dust, soil, and paint all should be measured to predict risk and target remediation. Because most homes still have not been assessed for lead hazards and remediated, too many children remain at needless risk.