MRI-based radiomics nomogram to predict synchronous liver metastasis in primary rectal cancer patients

At the time of diagnosis, approximately 15%-20% of patients with rectal cancer (RC) presented synchronous liver metastasis (SLM), which is the most common cause of death in patients with RC. Therefore, preoperative, noninvasive, and accurate prediction of SLM is crucial for personalized treatment strategies. Recently, radiomics has been considered as an advanced image analysis method to evaluate the neoplastic heterogeneity with respect to diagnosis of the tumor and prediction of prognosis. In this study, a total of 1409 radiomics features were extracted for each volume of interest (VOI) from high-resolution T2WI images of the primary RC. Subsequently, five optimal radiomics features were selected based on the training set using the least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (LASSO) method to construct the radiomics signature. In addition, radiomics signature combined with carcinoembryonic antigen (CEA) and carbohydrate antigen 19-9 (CA19-9) was included in the multifactor logistic regression to construct the nomogram model. It showed an optimal predictive performance in the validation set as compared to that in the radiomics model. The favorable calibration of the radiomics nomogram showed a nonsignificant Hosmer-Lemeshow test statistic (P > .05). The decision curve analysis (DCA) showed that the radiomics nomogram is clinically superior to the radiomics model. Therefore, the nomogram amalgamating the radiomics signature and clinical risk factors serve as an effective quantitative approach to predict the SLM of primary RC.