Multi-Scenario Simulation of Land Use for Sustainable Development Goals

被引：22

作者：

Cao, Min ^{[1
,2
]}

Chang, Lijiao ^{[1
]}

Ma, Shangjing ^{[1
]}

Zhao, Zijun ^{[1
]}

Wu, Kai ^{[1
]}

Hu, Xue ^{[1
]}

Gu, Qiushi ^{[3
]}

Lu, Guonian ^{[1
]}

Chen, Min ^{[1
]}

机构：

[1] Nanjing Normal Univ, Sch Geog, Nanjing 210023, Peoples R China

[2] Minist Nat Resources, Key Lab Urban Land Resources Monitoring & Simulat, Shenzhen 518034, Peoples R China

[3] Southeast Univ, Sch Humanities, Nanjing 211189, Peoples R China

来源：

IEEE JOURNAL OF SELECTED TOPICS IN APPLIED EARTH OBSERVATIONS AND REMOTE SENSING | 2022年 / 15卷

基金：

美国国家科学基金会;

关键词：

Sustainable development; Biological system modeling; Statistics; Sociology; Data models; Remote sensing; Predictive models; Cellular automata; land use; sustainable development goals (SDGS); system dynamics (SD); Yangtze river delta; CELLULAR-AUTOMATA; MODEL;

D O I：

10.1109/JSTARS.2022.3152904

中图分类号：

TM [电工技术]; TN [电子技术、通信技术];

学科分类号：

0808 ; 0809 ;

摘要：

Considering the UN sustainable development goals (SDGs) released in 2015, this article constructed an SDG-oriented land use simulation (SDG-LUS) model incorporating SDG-oriented system dynamics (SDG-SD) and SDG-oriented cellular automata (SDG-CA), and utilized it to simulate land use changes in the Yangtze river delta region. The SDG-SD model was developed to predict the land use demands from 2021 to 2030 under the constraints of multiple SDG indicators, including economic indicators (SDG2.3.1 and SDG8.1.1), social indicators (SDG3.c.1, SDG4.1.2, SDG5.b.1, SDG9.C.1, SDG 9.1.2, SDG11.2.1, and SDG11.7.1) and environmental indicators (SDG6.3.1 and SDG11.6.2). Four sustainable development scenarios, including reference, economic development, environmental protection and social progress scenarios, were established by utilizing the index and indicator board of the SDG indicators in 2030. Then, the SDG-CA model was applied to spatialize and simulate the land use evolution from 2021 to 2030 under different sustainable development scenarios. The results validate the applicability of the SDG-LUS model, and confirm that scenario simulations of different sustainability levels are conducive to supporting the formulation of sustainable land use plans.

引用

页码：2119 / 2127

页数：9

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