Genomic characterization and epidemiology of an emerging SARS-CoV-2 variant in Delhi, India

被引:211
作者
Dhar, Mahesh S. [1 ]
Marwal, Robin [1 ]
Radhakrishnan, V. S. [1 ]
Ponnusamy, Kalaiarasan [1 ]
Jolly, Bani [2 ,3 ]
Bhoyar, Rahul C. [2 ]
Sardana, Viren [2 ,3 ]
Naushin, Salwa [2 ,3 ]
Rophina, Mercy [2 ,3 ]
Mellan, Thomas A. [4 ]
Mishra, Swapnil [4 ]
Whittaker, Charles [4 ]
Fatihi, Saman [2 ,3 ]
Datta, Meena [1 ]
Singh, Priyanka [1 ]
Sharma, Uma [1 ]
Ujjainiya, Rajat [2 ,3 ]
Bhatheja, Nitin [2 ]
Divakar, Mohit Kumar [2 ,3 ]
Singh, Manoj K. [1 ]
Imran, Mohamed [2 ,3 ]
Senthivel, Vigneshwar [2 ,3 ]
Maurya, Ranjeet [2 ,3 ]
Jha, Neha [2 ]
Mehta, Priyanka [2 ]
Vivekanand, A. [2 ,3 ]
Sharma, Pooja [2 ,3 ]
Arvinden, V. R. [2 ,3 ]
Chaudhary, Urmila [1 ]
Soni, Namita [1 ]
Thukral, Lipi [2 ,3 ]
Flaxman, Seth [5 ]
Bhatt, Samir [4 ,6 ]
Pandey, Rajesh [2 ,3 ]
Dash, Debasis [2 ,3 ]
Faruq, Mohammed [2 ,3 ]
Lall, Hemlata [1 ]
Gogia, Hema [1 ]
Madan, Preeti [1 ]
Kulkarni, Sanket [1 ]
Chauhan, Himanshu [1 ]
Sengupta, Shantanu [2 ,3 ]
Kabra, Sandhya [1 ]
Gupta, Ravindra K. [7 ,8 ]
Singh, Sujeet K. [1 ]
Agrawal, Anurag [2 ,3 ]
Rakshit, Partha [1 ]
机构
[1] Natl Ctr Dis Control, Delhi, India
[2] CSIR Inst Genom & Integrat Biol, New Delhi, India
[3] Acad Sci & Innovat Res, Ghaziabad, India
[4] Imperial Coll London, Med Res Council MRC Ctr Global Infect Dis Anal, Sch Publ Hlth, Jameel Inst, London, England
[5] Imperial Coll London, Dept Math, London, England
[6] Univ Copenhagen, Dept Publ Hlth, Sect Epidemiol, Copenhagen, Denmark
[7] Univ Cambridge, Cambridge Inst Therapeut Immunol & Infect Dis CIT, Dept Med, Cambridge, England
[8] Africa Hlth Res Inst, Kwa Zulu, South Africa
基金
英国工程与自然科学研究理事会; 英国医学研究理事会;
关键词
HEALTH-CARE WORKERS; POPULATION;
D O I
10.1126/science.abj9932
中图分类号
O [数理科学和化学]; P [天文学、地球科学]; Q [生物科学]; N [自然科学总论];
学科分类号
07 ; 0710 ; 09 ;
摘要
Delhi, the national capital of India, experienced multiple severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) outbreaks in 2020 and reached population seropositivity of >50% by 2021. During April 2021, the city became overwhelmed by COVID-19 cases and fatalities, as a new variant, B.1.617.2 (Delta), replaced B.1.1.7 (Alpha). A Bayesian model explains the growth advantage of Delta through a combination of increased transmissibility and reduced sensitivity to immune responses generated against earlier variants (median estimates: 1.5-fold greater transmissibility and 20% reduction in sensitivity). Seropositivity of an employee and family cohort increased from 42% to 87.5% between March and July 2021, with 27% reinfections, as judged by increased antibody concentration after a previous decline. The likely high transmissibility and partial evasion of immunity by the Delta variant contributed to an overwhelming surge in Delhi.
引用
收藏
页码:995 / +
页数:29
相关论文
共 33 条
[1]  
[Anonymous], 2021, **NON-TRADITIONAL**, DOI [10.5281/zenodo.5521073, DOI 10.5281/ZENODO.5521073]
[2]  
[Anonymous], [Epidemiology of an emerging SARSCoV-2 variant in Delhi, India, version 1.0, Zenodo (2021)], DOI 10.5281/zenodo.5524442
[3]   ON AGE-DEPENDENT BINARY BRANCHING PROCESSES [J].
BELLMAN, R ;
HARRIS, T .
ANNALS OF MATHEMATICS, 1952, 55 (02) :280-295
[4]   Effectiveness of Covid-19 Vaccines against the B.1.617.2 (Delta) Variant [J].
Bernal, Jamie Lopez ;
Andrews, Nick ;
Gower, Charlotte ;
Gallagher, Eileen ;
Simmons, Ruth ;
Thelwall, Simon ;
Stowe, Julia ;
Tessier, Elise ;
Groves, Natalie ;
Dabrera, Gavin ;
Myers, Richard ;
Campbell, Colin N. J. ;
Amirthalingam, Gayatri ;
Edmunds, Matt ;
Zambon, Maria ;
Brown, Kevin E. ;
Hopkins, Susan ;
Chand, Meera ;
Ramsay, Mary .
NEW ENGLAND JOURNAL OF MEDICINE, 2021, 385 (07) :585-594
[5]   Underreporting COVID-19: the curious case of the Indian subcontinent [J].
Biswas, Raaj Kishore ;
Afiaz, Awan ;
Huq, Samin .
EPIDEMIOLOGY AND INFECTION, 2020, 148
[6]   Quantifying antibody kinetics and RNA detection during early-phase SARS-CoV-2 infection by time since symptom onset [J].
Borremans, Benny ;
Gamble, Amandine ;
Prager, K. C. ;
Helman, Sarah K. ;
McClain, Abby M. ;
Cox, Caitlin ;
Savage, Van ;
Lloyd-Smith, James O. .
ELIFE, 2020, 9
[7]   Immunological memory to SARS-CoV-2 assessed for up to 8 months after infection [J].
Dan, Jennifer M. ;
Mateus, Jose ;
Kato, Yu ;
Hastie, Kathryn M. ;
Yu, Esther Dawen ;
Faliti, Caterina E. ;
Grifoni, Alba ;
Ramirez, Sydney, I ;
Haupt, Sonya ;
Frazier, April ;
Nakao, Catherine ;
Rayaprolu, Vamseedhar ;
Rawlings, Stephen A. ;
Peters, Bjoern ;
Krammer, Florian ;
Simon, Viviana ;
Saphire, Erica Ollmann ;
Smith, Davey M. ;
Weiskopf, Daniela ;
Sette, Alessandro ;
Crotty, Shane .
SCIENCE, 2021, 371 (6529) :587-+
[8]   Estimated transmissibility and impact of SARS-CoV-2 lineage B.1.1.7 in England [J].
Davies, Nicholas G. ;
Abbott, Sam ;
Barnard, Rosanna C. ;
Jarvis, Christopher, I ;
Kucharski, Adam J. ;
Munday, James D. ;
Pearson, Carl A. B. ;
Russell, Timothy W. ;
Tully, Damien C. ;
Washburne, Alex D. ;
Wenseleers, Tom ;
Gimma, Amy ;
Waites, William ;
Wong, Kerry L. M. ;
van Zandvoort, Kevin ;
Silverman, Justin D. ;
Diaz-Ordaz, Karla ;
Keogh, Ruth ;
Eggo, Rosalind M. ;
Funk, Sebastian ;
Jit, Mark ;
Atkins, Katherine E. ;
Edmunds, W. John .
SCIENCE, 2021, 372 (6538) :149-+
[9]  
Ella R., 2021, MEDRXIV2021063021259, DOI [10.1101/2021.06.30.21259439, DOI 10.1101/2021.06.30.21259439]
[10]   On the integral equation of renewal theory [J].
Feller, W .
ANNALS OF MATHEMATICAL STATISTICS, 1941, 12 :243-267