An Overview of Scenario Approaches: A Guide for Urban Design and Planning

被引:29
作者
Abou Jaoude, Grace [1 ]
Mumm, Olaf [1 ]
Carlow, Vanessa Miriam [1 ]
机构
[1] Tech Univ Carolo Wilhelmina Braunschweig, ISU Inst Sustainable Urbanism, Pockelsstr 3, D-38106 Braunschweig, Germany
关键词
scenario planning; urban futures; scenario building; uncertainty; scenario thinking; SUPPORT-SYSTEMS; TRANSPORT; POLICY; FUTURE; VISIONS; PLANS; OUTCOMES; TOOLS;
D O I
10.1177/08854122221083546
中图分类号
TU98 [区域规划、城乡规划];
学科分类号
0814 ; 082803 ; 0833 ;
摘要
Rising complexities and uncertainties have emphasized the need to employ scenario thinking in urban design and planning. While different scenario methods have been widely used across disciplines, a comprehensive review of scenario approaches in planning literature is limited. Thus, we provide an overview of scenarios and existing scenario approaches currently in practice. We also review a scenario building process to provide a guide for developing scenarios in the context of urban design and planning. The process highlights the different steps that contribute to adaptive planning and improve decision-making.
引用
收藏
页码:467 / 487
页数:21
相关论文
共 137 条
[71]   Modeling Sustainability Scenarios in the Baltimore-Washington (DC) Region Implications for Methodology and Policy [J].
Knaap, Gerrit-Jan ;
Engelberg, Daniel ;
Avin, Uri ;
Erdogan, Sevgi ;
Ducca, Fred ;
Welch, Timothy F. ;
Finio, Nicholas ;
Moeckel, Rolf ;
Shahumyan, Harutyun .
JOURNAL OF THE AMERICAN PLANNING ASSOCIATION, 2020, 86 (02) :250-263
[72]   The potential of Fuzzy Cognitive Maps for semi-quantitative scenario development, with an example from Brazil [J].
Kok, Kasper .
GLOBAL ENVIRONMENTAL CHANGE-HUMAN AND POLICY DIMENSIONS, 2009, 19 (01) :122-133
[73]  
Kosow H., 2008, Methods of Future and Scenario Analysis: Overview, Assessemnt, and Scenario Creteria
[74]   Evaluating the outcomes of plans: theory, practice, and methodology [J].
Laurian, Lucie ;
Crawford, Jan ;
Day, Maxine ;
Kouwenhoven, Peter ;
Mason, Greg ;
Ericksen, Neil ;
Beattie, Lee .
ENVIRONMENT AND PLANNING B-PLANNING & DESIGN, 2010, 37 (04) :740-757
[75]   Meeting Climate, Mobility, and Equity Goals in Transportation Planning Under Wide-Ranging Scenarios A Demonstration of Robust Decision Making [J].
Lempert, Robert ;
Syme, James ;
Mazur, George ;
Knopman, Debra ;
Ballard-Rosa, Garett ;
Lizon, Kacey ;
Edochie, Ifeanyi .
JOURNAL OF THE AMERICAN PLANNING ASSOCIATION, 2020, 86 (03) :311-323
[76]  
Lennertz B., 2017, The charrette handbook: The essential guide to design-based public invovlement, V2nd
[77]   Towards the collaborative development of machine learning techniques in planning support systems - a Sydney example [J].
Lock, Oliver ;
Bain, Michael ;
Pettit, Christopher .
ENVIRONMENT AND PLANNING B-URBAN ANALYTICS AND CITY SCIENCE, 2021, 48 (03) :484-502
[78]  
Madill H.L., 2018, Crafting charrettes that transform communities
[79]   Methods for translating narrative scenarios into quantitative assessments of land use change [J].
Mallampalli, Varun Rao ;
Mavrommati, Georgia ;
Thompson, Jonathan ;
Duveneck, Matthew ;
Meyer, Spencer ;
Ligmann-Zielinska, Arika ;
Druschke, Caroline Gottschalk ;
Hychka, Kristen ;
Kenney, Melissa A. ;
Kok, Kasper ;
Borsuk, Mark E. .
ENVIRONMENTAL MODELLING & SOFTWARE, 2016, 82 :7-20
[80]  
Mattiuzzi E., 2016, Progress on Implementing SB 375: Combating Climate Change and Sprawl through Coordinated Planning