Associations between sociodemographic factors, health spending, disease burden, and life expectancy of older adults (70+years old) in 22 countries in the Western Pacific Region, 1995-2019: estimates from the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) Study 2019

The needs of the aging populations are putting increasing burden on healthcare particularly in the Western Pacific Region (WPR), which is the home of aging economies such as Hong Kong and Japan alongside rapid increases in older people in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs). However, little is known about the associations between sociodemographic factors, disease burden, and life expectancy in WPR. The current study conducted secondary analysis on the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) estimates of populations aged 70 years and older in WPR countries between 1995 and 2019. Correlation tests, linear mixed regressions and generalized additive mixture models were run to examine the associations of interest. Unsupervised machine learning was conducted to segment the data automatically, at cluster analysis. The sociodemographic development index was found an important factor to the disease burden in terms of Years Lived with Disability (YLD) rate and mortality rate among older adults. YLD rate and mortality rate of non-communicable diseases (NCDs) attributable to different risk groups were significant contributors to higher expectation of Lost Healthy Years (LHE) and shorter life expectancy respectively in the context of rising YLD rate, particularly in LMICs. Three clusters of countries with similar characteristics were identified. NCDs were the most significant contributors to shorter life expectancy within which the time living in poor health did not improve. Better management of NCDs in aging populations should be emphasized in all countries. The country clusters may help in a more regional strategic planning.