Shallow landslide prediction in the Serra do Mar, Sao Paulo, Brazil

被引:62
作者
Vieira, B. C. [1 ]
Fernandes, N. F. [2 ]
Filho, O. A. [3 ]
机构
[1] Univ Sao Paulo, Dept Geog, Sao Paulo, Brazil
[2] Univ Fed Rio de Janeiro, Dept Geog, Rio De Janeiro, Brazil
[3] Univ Sao Paulo, Dept Geotech, Sao Paulo, Brazil
基金
巴西圣保罗研究基金会;
关键词
MODEL; RAINFALL; SOILS; WASHINGTON; INITIATION; SEATTLE; ISLAND; FIELD;
D O I
10.5194/nhess-10-1829-2010
中图分类号
P [天文学、地球科学];
学科分类号
07 ;
摘要
Various methods are currently used in order to predict shallow landslides within the catchment scale. Among them, physically based models present advantages associated with the physical description of processes by means of mathematical equations. The main objective of this research is the prediction of shallow landslides using TRIGRS model, in a pilot catchment located at Serra do Mar mountain range, Sao Paulo State, southeastern Brazil. Susceptibility scenarios have been simulated taking into account different mechanical and hydrological values. These scenarios were analysed based on a landslide scars map from the January 1985 event, upon which two indexes were applied: Scars Concentration (SC - ratio between the number of cells with scars, in each class, and the total number of cells with scars within the catchment) and Landslide Potential (LP - ratio between the number of cells with scars, in each class, and the total number of cells in that same class). The results showed a significant agreement between the simulated scenarios and the scar's map. In unstable areas (SF <= 1), the SC values exceeded 50% in all scenarios. Based on the results, the use of this model should be considered an important tool for shallow landslide prediction, especially in areas where mechanical and hydrological properties of the materials are not well known.
引用
收藏
页码:1829 / 1837
页数:9
相关论文
共 44 条
  • [1] [Anonymous], 2002, 02424 USGS
  • [2] BARATA FE, 1969, 7 INT C SOIL MECH FD
  • [3] Regional landslide-hazard assessment for Seattle, Washington, USA
    Baum, RL
    Coe, JA
    Godt, JW
    Harp, EL
    Reid, ME
    Savage, WZ
    Schulz, WH
    Brien, DL
    Chleborad, AF
    McKenna, JP
    Michael, JA
    [J]. LANDSLIDES, 2005, 2 (04) : 266 - 279
  • [4] BISANTI B, 2005, 3 SWISS GEOSC M ZUR, P1
  • [5] CALCATERRA D, 2004, LANDSLIDES EVALUATIO, P177
  • [6] Analysis of time-varying rainfall infiltration induced landslide
    Chen, CY
    Chen, TC
    Yu, FC
    Lin, SC
    [J]. ENVIRONMENTAL GEOLOGY, 2005, 48 (4-5): : 466 - 479
  • [7] Modelling the impact of predicted climate change on landslide frequency and magnitude in SE England
    Collison, A
    Wade, S
    Griffiths, J
    Dehn, M
    [J]. ENGINEERING GEOLOGY, 2000, 55 (03) : 205 - 218
  • [8] COROMINAS J, 2004, LANDSLIDES EVALUATIO, P363
  • [9] Distributed modelling of shallow landslides triggered by intense rainfall
    Crosta, G. B.
    Frattini, P.
    [J]. NATURAL HAZARDS AND EARTH SYSTEM SCIENCES, 2003, 3 (1-2) : 81 - 93
  • [10] Long-term modelling of landslides for different forest management practices
    Dhakal, AS
    Sidle, RC
    [J]. EARTH SURFACE PROCESSES AND LANDFORMS, 2003, 28 (08) : 853 - 868