Regional climate change and its effects on the runoff of Manas River, Xinjiang, China

被引:44
|
作者
Ling, Hongbo [1 ,2 ]
Xu, Hailiang [1 ]
Shi, Wei [1 ,2 ]
Zhang, Qingqing [1 ,2 ]
机构
[1] Chinese Acad Sci, Xinjiang Inst Ecol & Geog, Urumqi 830011, Peoples R China
[2] Chinese Acad Sci, Grad Univ, Beijing 100049, Peoples R China
关键词
Climate change; Periodicity and trend of runoff; Human activity; Manas River Basin; Arid region; WATER-RESOURCES; BASIN; IMPACT; OASIS;
D O I
10.1007/s12665-011-1048-2
中图分类号
X [环境科学、安全科学];
学科分类号
08 ; 0830 ;
摘要
The effects of climate change on annual runoff were analyzed on the basis of hydrologic and meteorological data for the past 50 years recorded by six meteorological stations and the Kenswatt Hydrological Station in the headstream of the Manas River watershed. The long-term trends of climate change and hydrological variations were determined in a nonparametric test, and the periodicities were determined employing the extrapolation method of periodic variance analysis. Subsequently, a periodicity-trend superposition model was used to predict future change. The results show that both the climate factors (temperature and precipitation) and runoff have increased considerably and have significant relations; the relation between temperature and runoff is the more significant. There is periodicity of 18 years in the change in annual runoff, and the primary periodicity of changes in temperature and precipitation is, respectively, 3 and 15 years. The runoff variations are affected by climate change in the headstream, but do not shift simultaneously with abrupt changes in temperature and precipitation in the headstream. There is a significant positive relationship in winter between the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and runoff, while there are negative correlations annually and in summer for the runoff lagging the NAO by 1 year. The NAO has certain effects on climate change that are mainly due to atmospheric circulation in the Manas River Basin, and thus, the NAO affects the runoff.
引用
收藏
页码:2203 / 2213
页数:11
相关论文
共 50 条
  • [31] Runoff variation and its response to climate change in Huolin River catchment, Northeast China
    Dan Dan
    Chun Xi
    Shi Lei
    Xia Ying-ying
    Zhou Hai-jun
    Wan Zhi-qiang
    JOURNAL OF MOUNTAIN SCIENCE, 2021, 18 (12) : 3165 - 3178
  • [32] Runoff variation and its response to climate change in Huolin River catchment, Northeast China
    DAN Dan
    CHUN Xi
    SHI Lei
    XIA Ying-ying
    ZHOU Hai-jun
    WAN Zhi-qiang
    Journal of Mountain Science, 2021, 18 (12) : 3165 - 3178
  • [33] The Nonlinear trend of runoff and its response to climate change in the Aksu River, western China
    Xu, Jianhua
    Chen, Yaning
    Lu, Feng
    Li, Weihong
    Zhang, Lijun
    Hong, Yulian
    INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF CLIMATOLOGY, 2011, 31 (05) : 687 - 695
  • [34] Runoff variation and its response to climate change in Huolin River catchment, Northeast China
    Dan Dan
    Xi Chun
    Lei Shi
    Ying-ying Xia
    Hai-jun Zhou
    Zhi-qiang Wan
    Journal of Mountain Science, 2021, 18 : 3165 - 3178
  • [35] Regional runoff variation and its response to climate change and human activities in Northwest China
    Jia Qin
    Yuexia Liu
    Yaping Chang
    Shiwei Liu
    Hongzheng Pu
    Jiaxin Zhou
    Environmental Earth Sciences, 2016, 75
  • [36] Regional runoff variation and its response to climate change and human activities in Northwest China
    Qin, Jia
    Liu, Yuexia
    Chang, Yaping
    Liu, Shiwei
    Pu, Hongzheng
    Zhou, Jiaxin
    ENVIRONMENTAL EARTH SCIENCES, 2016, 75 (20)
  • [37] Climate change effects on winter river runoff in Transbaikalia
    Obyazov, V. A.
    Smakhtin, V. K.
    RUSSIAN METEOROLOGY AND HYDROLOGY, 2013, 38 (07) : 503 - 508
  • [38] Climate change effects on winter river runoff in Transbaikalia
    V. A. Obyazov
    V. K. Smakhtin
    Russian Meteorology and Hydrology, 2013, 38 : 503 - 508
  • [39] Effects of Climate Change and Human Activities on Runoff in the Upper Reach of Jialing River, China
    Shi, Weizhao
    He, Yi
    Shao, Yiting
    REMOTE SENSING, 2024, 16 (13)
  • [40] Quantitatively evaluating the effects of climate factors on runoff change for Aksu River in northwestern China
    Baofu Li
    Yaning Chen
    Heigang Xiong
    Theoretical and Applied Climatology, 2016, 123 : 97 - 105