How Will Climate Change Affect the Provision and Value of Water from Public Lands in Southern California Through the 21st Century?

被引：3

作者：

Srivastava, Lorie ^{[1
]}

Hand, Michael ^{[2
,3
]}

Kim, John ^{[4
]}

Sanchez, Jose J. ^{[5
]}

Lupi, Frank ^{[6
]}

Garnache, Cloe ^{[7
]}

Drapek, Raymond J. ^{[4
]}

Quinn, James F. ^{[1
]}

机构：

[1] Univ Calif Davis, Dept Environm Sci & Policy, Davis, CA 95616 USA

[2] US Gen Serv Adm, Off Evaluat Sci, Washington, DC USA

[3] US Forest Serv, USDA, Rocky Mt Res Stn, Ft Collins, CO USA

[4] US Forest Serv, USDA, Pacific Northwest Res Stn, Corvallis, OR USA

[5] US Forest Serv, USDA, Pacific Southwest Res Stn, Albany, CA USA

[6] Michigan State Univ, Dept Agr Food & Resource Econ, E Lansing, MI 48824 USA

[7] Univ Oslo, Dept Econ, Oslo, Norway

来源：

AGRICULTURAL AND RESOURCE ECONOMICS REVIEW | 2020年 / 49卷 / 01期

关键词：

California; climate change; ecosystem services; MC2; valuation; water provisioning; welfare change;

D O I：

10.1017/age.2020.3

中图分类号：

F3 [农业经济];

学科分类号：

0202 ; 020205 ; 1203 ;

摘要：

We estimate the ecosystem service value of water supplied by the San Bernardino National Forest in Southern California under climate change projections through the 21(st) century. We couple water flow projections from a dynamic vegetation model with an economic demand model for residential water originating from the San Bernardino National Forest. Application of the method demonstrates how estimates of consumer welfare changes due to variation in water supply from public lands in Southern California can inform policy and land management decisions. Results suggest variations in welfare changes over time due to alterations in the projected water supply surpluses, shifting demand limited by water supply shortages or surpluses, and price increases. Results are sensitive to future climate projections-in some cases large decreases in welfare due to supply shortages-and to assumptions about the demand model.

引用

页码：117 / 149

页数：33

共 54 条

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