Extratropical - Tropical interaction during onset of the Australian monsoon: Reanalysis diagnostics and idealized dry simulations

The onset of the Australian monsoon is examined using (i) reanalysis data for seasons when enhanced observational networks were available and (ii) a 15-yr onset composite. Similar to previous findings, onset is characterized by a sudden strengthening and deepening in tropical westerly winds, which are overlain with upper-tropospheric easterlies. All onsets are preceded by up to a 7-day preconditioning period of enhanced vertical motion and moistening. During the transition season, the 6 weeks prior to onset, a number of moist westerly events occur. Generally they are only sustained for short periods and overlain by upper-level westerly winds, suggesting an association with midlatitude troughs, which protrude into the deep Tropics. For individual years and for a 15-yr composite, monsoon onset is associated with major cyclogenesis events over the southwest Indian Ocean in the presence of a subtropical jet over the eastern Indian Ocean. The proposed mechanism for extratropical-tropical interaction is northeastward Rossby wave propagation from the cyclogenesis region toward the Tropics at upper levels. At these levels, westerly winds extend to nearly 10 S and provide a favorable background flow for such propagation. The process eventually results in the amplification of an equatorward-extending midlatitude upper trough and tropical ridge, which appears to trigger the development of the underlying monsoon trough. To test the hypothesis, the influence of high-latitude cyclogenesis on the tropical circulation is investigated with the aid of an idealized, dry, three-dimensional, baroclinic wave channel model. The initial state consists of (i) a zonally constant baroclinic region centered on 40 S, from which the high-latitude cyclogenesis develops, (ii) a weak monsoon trough at 15 S, and (iii) a subtropical jet at 25 S. The major findings from the simulations are as follows: 1) There is evidence of northeastward Rossby wave propagation from the cyclogenesis region toward low latitudes. 2) Consistent with theoretical studies, the subtropical jet plays a key role by providing a favorable westerly background flow for group propagation into the Tropics. 3) High-latitude cyclogenesis in the presence of a subtropical jet can influence the meridional location, zonal structure, vorticity, and divergence in the monsoon trough. 4) Vorticity and divergence changes are consistent with enhancement of the monsoon trough (increases in low-level cyclonic vorticity) and the potential for triggering a large-scale convective outbreak (changes in upper-level divergence).