Is externalizing psychopathology a robust risk factor for suicidal thoughts and behaviors? A meta-analysis of longitudinal studies

Objective Our primary objective was to determine the potency of externalizing psychopathology as a risk factor for suicidal thoughts and behaviors (STBs). Method We conducted a random effects meta-analysis of 174 prospective studies (839 unique statistical tests) examining externalizing psychopathology and suicidal thoughts and behaviors (STBs) published prior to December 8, 2017. The weighted mean odds ratios for the overall relationship between externalizing psychopathology and STBs were below 2.00 in magnitude, and all risk factor subcategories were also fairly modest predictors of STBs. Taking publication bias into account reduced the magnitude of these associations, particularly for death. Although externalizing psychopathology modestly predicts STBs, this may be due to design limitations of existing studies. Future research should employ shorter follow-up periods, consider risk factors in combination, and focus on forms of externalizing psychopathology that have not been studied extensively. Results The weighted mean odds ratios for the overall relationship between externalizing psychopathology and STBs were below 2.00 in magnitude, and all risk factor subcategories were also fairly modest predictors of STBs. Taking publication bias into account reduced the magnitude of these associations, particularly for death. Additionally, our results were mostly consistent regardless of sample age, sample severity, follow-up length, and predictor scale. Conclusions Although externalizing psychopathology modestly predicts STBs, this may be due to design limitations of existing studies. Future research should employ shorter follow-up periods, consider risk factors in combination, and focus on forms of externalizing psychopathology that have not been studied extensively.