External Validation of the Dutch SOURCE Survival Prediction Model in Belgian Metastatic Oesophageal and Gastric Cancer Patients

被引：6

作者：

van Kleef, J. J. ^{[1
]}

van den Boorn, H. G. ^{[1
]}

Verhoeven, R. H. A. ^{[2
]}

Vanschoenbeek, K. ^{[3
]}

Abu-Hanna, A. ^{[4
]}

Zwinderman, A. H. ^{[5
]}

Sprangers, M. A. G. ^{[6
]}

van Oijen, M. G. H. ^{[1
]}

De Schutter, H. ^{[3
]}

van Laarhoven, H. W. M. ^{[1
]}

机构：

[1] Univ Amsterdam, Amsterdam Univ Med Ctr, Canc Ctr Amsterdam, Dept Med Oncol, NL-1105 AZ Amsterdam, Netherlands

[2] Netherlands Comprehens Canc Org IKNL, Dept Res & Dev, NL-3511 DT Utrecht, Netherlands

[3] Belgian Canc Registry, B-1210 Brussels, Belgium

[4] Univ Amsterdam, Amsterdam Univ Med Ctr, Dept Med Informat, NL-1105 AZ Amsterdam, Netherlands

[5] Univ Amsterdam, Amsterdam Univ Med Ctr, Dept Clin Epidemiol Biostat & Bioinformat, NL-1105 AZ Amsterdam, Netherlands

[6] Univ Amsterdam, Amsterdam Publ Hlth Res Inst, Acad Med Ctr, Dept Med Psychol,Amsterdam Univ Med Ctr, NL-1105 AZ Amsterdam, Netherlands

来源：

CANCERS | 2020年 / 12卷 / 04期

关键词：

prediction model; external validation; oesophageal cancer; gastric cancer; CLINICAL-PRACTICE GUIDELINES; DIAGNOSIS; CHEMOTHERAPY; RISK;

D O I：

10.3390/cancers12040834

中图分类号：

R73 [肿瘤学];

学科分类号：

100214 ;

摘要：

The SOURCE prediction model predicts individualised survival conditional on various treatments for patients with metastatic oesophageal or gastric cancer. The aim of this study was to validate SOURCE in an external cohort from the Belgian Cancer Registry. Data of Belgian patients diagnosed with metastatic disease between 2004 and 2014 were extracted (n = 4097). Model calibration and discrimination (c-indices) were determined. A total of 2514 patients with oesophageal cancer and 1583 patients with gastric cancer with a median survival of 7.7 and 5.4 months, respectively, were included. The oesophageal cancer model showed poor calibration (intercept: 0.30, slope: 0.42) with an absolute mean prediction error of 14.6%. The mean difference between predicted and observed survival was -2.6%. The concordance index (c-index) of the oesophageal model was 0.64. The gastric cancer model showed good calibration (intercept: 0.02, slope: 0.91) with an absolute mean prediction error of 2.5%. The mean difference between predicted and observed survival was 2.0%. The c-index of the gastric cancer model was 0.66. The SOURCE gastric cancer model was well calibrated and had a similar performance in the Belgian cohort compared with the Dutch internal validation. However, the oesophageal cancer model had not. Our findings underscore the importance of evaluating the performance of prediction models in other populations.

引用

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