Dose-response time modelling for highly pathogenic avian influenza A (H5N1) virus infection

被引：10

作者：

Kitajima, M. ^{[1
]}

Huang, Y. ^{[2
]}

Watanabe, T. ^{[3
]}

Katayama, H. ^{[4
]}

Haas, C. N. ^{[5
]}

机构：

[1] Univ Arizona, Dept Soil Water & Environm Sci, Tucson, AZ 85721 USA

[2] Michigan State Univ, Dept Fisheries & Wildlife, E Lansing, MI 48824 USA

[3] Yamagata Univ, Dept Food Life & Environm Sci, Yamagata 990, Japan

[4] Univ Tokyo, Dept Urban Engn, Bunkyo Ku, Tokyo, Japan

[5] Drexel Univ, Dept Civil Architectural & Environm Engn, Philadelphia, PA 19104 USA

来源：

LETTERS IN APPLIED MICROBIOLOGY | 2011年 / 53卷 / 04期

基金：

日本学术振兴会;

关键词：

disease(s); infection; modelling; virulence; virus(es); MICROBIAL RISK-ASSESSMENT; TRANSMISSION; MICE; IMMUNITY; FERRETS; DISEASE;

D O I：

10.1111/j.1472-765X.2011.03128.x

中图分类号：

Q81 [生物工程学（生物技术）]; Q93 [微生物学];

学科分类号：

071005 ; 0836 ; 090102 ; 100705 ;

摘要：

Aims: To develop time-dependent dose-response models for highly pathogenic avian influenza A (HPAI) of the H5N1 subtype virus. Methods and Results: A total of four candidate time-dependent dose-response models were fitted to four survival data sets for animals (mice or ferrets) exposed to graded doses of HPAI H5N1 virus using the maximum-likelihood estimation. A beta-Poisson dose-response model with the N-50 parameter modified by an exponential-inverse-power time dependency or an exponential dose-response model with the k parameter modified by an exponential-inverse time dependency provided a statistically adequate fit to the observed survival data. Conclusions: We have successfully developed the time-dependent dose-response models to describe the mortality of animals exposed to an HPAI H5N1 virus. The developed model describes the mortality over time and represents observed experimental responses accurately. Significance and Impact of the Study: This is the first study describing time-dependent dose-response models for HPAI H5N1 virus. The developed models will be a useful tool for estimating the mortality of HPAI H5N1 virus, which may depend on time postexposure, for the preparation of a future influenza pandemic caused by this lethal virus.

引用

页码：438 / 444

页数：7