Competing epidemics on complex networks

被引:176
作者
Karrer, Brian [1 ]
Newman, M. E. J. [1 ,2 ]
机构
[1] Univ Michigan, Dept Phys, Ann Arbor, MI 48109 USA
[2] Univ Michigan, Ctr Study Complex Syst, Ann Arbor, MI 48109 USA
基金
美国国家科学基金会;
关键词
PERCOLATION; BEHAVIOR; MODELS;
D O I
10.1103/PhysRevE.84.036106
中图分类号
O35 [流体力学]; O53 [等离子体物理学];
学科分类号
070204 ; 080103 ; 080704 ;
摘要
Human diseases spread over networks of contacts between individuals and a substantial body of recent research has focused on the dynamics of the spreading process. Here we examine a model of two competing diseases spreading over the same network at the same time, where infection with either disease gives an individual subsequent immunity to both. Using a combination of analytic and numerical methods, we derive the phase diagram of the system and estimates of the expected final numbers of individuals infected with each disease. The system shows an unusual dynamical transition between dominance of one disease and dominance of the other as a function of their relative rates of growth. Close to this transition the final outcomes show strong dependence on stochastic fluctuations in the early stages of growth, dependence that decreases with increasing network size, but does so sufficiently slowly as still to be easily visible in systems with millions or billions of individuals. In most regions of the phase diagram we find that one disease eventually dominates while the other reaches only a vanishing fraction of the network, but the system also displays a significant coexistence regime in which both diseases reach epidemic proportions and infect an extensive fraction of the network.
引用
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页数:12
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