Evaluating the Effects of Climate Change on the Electricity Demand of Distribution Networks

Rising temperatures as a result of climate change are likely to increase the adoption of air conditioners (AC), which in turn leads to higher power demands and electric energy consumption. This paper presents a methodology to evaluate the corresponding effects of climate change in distribution networks (DNs). To assess these effects, two climate change scenarios produced by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, models for residential AC availability, and residential AC demand profiles are used. For the study, a Costa Rican network fully modeled using OpenDSS and load profiles obtained from a power utility are used. Simulation results suggest that even low penetration levels of residential AC units represent a significant part of the DN's energy consumption, and that increases the DN demand in hours of high temperatures. This, in turn, highlights that mitigation measures such as demand response programs are necessary to supply the rises in demand.