DEVELOPMENT OF A HINDCAST/FORECAST MODEL FOR THE PHILIPPINE ARCHIPELAGO

被引:12
作者
Arango, Hernan G. [1 ]
Levin, Julia C. [1 ]
Curchitser, Enrique N. [1 ]
Zhang, Bin [2 ]
Moore, Andrew M. [3 ]
Han, Weiqing [4 ]
Gordon, Arnold L. [5 ]
Lee, Craig M. [6 ]
Girton, James B. [6 ]
机构
[1] Rutgers State Univ, Inst Marine & Coastal Sci, New Brunswick, NJ 08903 USA
[2] Univ Maryland, Earth Syst Sci Interdisciplinary Ctr, College Pk, MD 20742 USA
[3] Univ Calif Santa Cruz, Ocean Sci Dept, Santa Cruz, CA 95064 USA
[4] Univ Colorado, Dept Atmospher & Ocean Sci, Boulder, CO 80309 USA
[5] Columbia Univ, Lamont Doherty Earth Observ, Palisades, NY USA
[6] Univ Washington, Appl Phys Lab, Seattle, WA 98105 USA
关键词
DATA ASSIMILATION; INTEGRATED OBSERVATION; OCEAN; SYSTEM; CIRCULATION; SEA; PARAMETERIZATION; TEMPERATURE; TOPOGRAPHY; SALINITY;
D O I
10.5670/oceanog.2011.04
中图分类号
P7 [海洋学];
学科分类号
0707 ;
摘要
This article discusses the challenges of developing a regional ocean prediction model for the Philippine Archipelago, a complex area in terms of geometry bathymetry-dominated dynamics and variability, and strong, g local and remote wind forcing, where there are limited temporal and spatial ocean measurements. We used the Regional Ocean Modeling system (ROMS) for real-time forecasting during the Philippine Straits Dynamics Experiment (2007-2009) observational program. The article focuses on the prediction experiments before and during the exploratory cruise period, June 6-July 3, 2007. The gathered observations were not available in real time, so the 4-Dimensional Variational (4D-Var) data assimilation experiments were carried out in hindcast mode. The best estimate of ocean state (nowcast) is determined by combining satellite-derived products for sea surface temperature and height, and subsurface temperature and salinity measurements from several hydrographic assets over a sequential five-day data assimilation window. The largest source of forecast uncertainty is from the prescribed lateral boundary conditions in the nearby Pacific Ocean, especially excessive salt flux. This result suggests that remote forcing and inflows from the Pacific are crucial for predicting ocean circulation in the Philippine Archipelago region. The lateral boundary conditions are derived from 1/12 degrees global HYbrid Coordinate Ocean Model (HYCOM) daily snapshots. The incremental, strong-constraint 4D-Var data assimilation successfully decreased temperature and salinity errors of the real-time, nonassimilative control forecast by 38% and 49%, respectively.
引用
收藏
页码:58 / 69
页数:12
相关论文
共 44 条
[1]  
AGARWAL A, 2009, THESIS MIT
[2]  
Bengtsson L., 1981, Dynamic Meteorology: Data Assimilation Methods
[3]  
Bennett A.F., 1992, INVERSE METHODS PHYS
[4]  
Bennett A. F., 2002, Inverse modeling of the ocean and atmosphere
[5]   An oceanic general circulation model framed in hybrid isopycnic-Cartesian coordinates [J].
Bleck, Rainer .
OCEAN MODELLING, 2002, 4 (01) :55-88
[6]   Objective analyses of annual, seasonal, and monthly temperature and salinity for the world ocean on a 0.25° grid [J].
Boyer, T ;
Levitus, S ;
Garcia, H ;
Locarnini, RA ;
Stephens, C ;
Antonov, J .
INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF CLIMATOLOGY, 2005, 25 (07) :931-945
[7]   Corrections to ocean surface forcing in the California Current System using 4D variational data assimilation [J].
Broquet, G. ;
Moore, A. M. ;
Arango, H. G. ;
Edwards, C. A. .
OCEAN MODELLING, 2011, 36 (1-2) :116-132
[8]   Application of 4D-Variational data assimilation to the California Current System [J].
Broquet, G. ;
Edwards, C. A. ;
Moore, A. M. ;
Powell, B. S. ;
Veneziani, M. ;
Doyle, J. D. .
DYNAMICS OF ATMOSPHERES AND OCEANS, 2009, 48 (1-3) :69-92
[9]   Operational multivariate ocean data assimilation [J].
Cummings, James A. .
QUARTERLY JOURNAL OF THE ROYAL METEOROLOGICAL SOCIETY, 2005, 131 (613) :3583-3604
[10]  
Daley R., 1991, Atmospheric data analysis