Effect modification of greenness on the association between heat and mortality: A multi-city multi-country study

被引：43

作者：

Choi, Hayon Michelle ^{[1
]}

Lee, Whanhee ^{[1
]}

Roye, Dominic ^{[2
]}

Heo, Seulkee ^{[1
]}

Urban, Ales ^{[3
,4
]}

Entezari, Alireza ^{[5
]}

Vicedo-Cabrera, Ana Maria ^{[6
]}

Zanobetti, Antonella ^{[7
]}

Gasparrini, Antonio ^{[8
,9
,10
]}

Analitis, Antonis ^{[11
]}

Tobias, Aurelio ^{[12
,13
]}

Armstrong, Ben ^{[8
]}

Forsberg, Bertil ^{[14
]}

Iniguez, Carmen ^{[15
]}

Astrom, Christofer ^{[14
]}

Indermitte, Ene ^{[16
]}

Lavigne, Eric ^{[17
,18
]}

Mayvaneh, Fatemeh ^{[5
]}

Acquaotta, Fiorella ^{[19
]}

Sera, Francesco ^{[20
]}

Orru, Hans ^{[16
]}

Kim, Ho ^{[21
]}

Kysely, Jan ^{[3
,4
,22
]}

Madueira, Joana ^{[23
,24
]}

Schwartz, Joel ^{[7
]}

Jaakkola, Jouni J. K. ^{[25
]}

Katsouyanni, Klea ^{[11
]}

Diaz, Magali Hurtado ^{[26
]}

Ragettli, Martina S. ^{[27
,28
]}

Pascal, Mathilde ^{[29
]}

Ryti, Niilo ^{[25
]}

Scovronick, Noah ^{[30
]}

Osorio, Samuel ^{[31
]}

Tong, Shilu ^{[32
,33
,34
,35
]}

Seposo, Xerxes ^{[13
]}

Guo, Yue Leon ^{[36
,37
,38
]}

Guo, Yuming ^{[39
]}

Bell, Michelle L. ^{[1
]}

机构：

[1] Yale Univ, Sch Environm, New Haven, CT 06520 USA

[2] Univ Santiago de Compostela, Dept Geog, Santiago De Compostela, Spain

[3] Czech Acad Sci, Inst Atmospher Phys, Prague, Czech Republic

[4] Czech Univ Life Sci, Fac Environm Sci, Prague, Czech Republic

[5] Hakim Sabzevari Univ, Fac Geog & Environm Sci, Sabzevar Khorasan Razavi, Iran

[6] Univ Bern, Inst Social & Prevent Med, Bern, Switzerland

[7] Harvard TH Chan Sch Publ Hlth, Dept Environm Hlth, Boston, MA USA

[8] London Sch Hyg & Trop Med, Dept Publ Hlth Environm & Soc, London, England

[9] London Sch Hyg & Trop Med, Ctr Stat Methodol, London, England

[10] London Sch Hyg & Trop Med, Ctr Climate Change & Planetary Hlth, London, England

[11] Natl & Kapodistrian Univ Athens, Dept Hyg Epidemiol & Med Stat, Athens, Greece

[12] Spanish Council Sci Res CSIC, Inst Environm Assessment & Water Res IDAEA, Barcelona, Spain

[13] Nagasaki Univ, Sch Trop Med & Global Hlth, Nagasaki, Japan

[14] Umea Univ, Dept Publ Hlth & Clin Med, Umea, Sweden

[15] Univ Valencia, Dept Stat & Computat Res, Valencia, Spain

[16] Univ Tartu, Dept Family Med & Publ Hlth, Tartu, Estonia

[17] Univ Ottawa, Fac Med, Sch Epidemiol & Publ Hlth, Ottawa, ON, Canada

[18] Hlth Canada, Air Hlth Sci Div, Ottawa, ON, Canada

[19] Univ Torino, Dept Earth Sci, Turin, Italy

[20] Univ Florence, Dept Stat Comp Sci & Applicat G Parenti, Florence, Italy

[21] Seoul Natl Univ, Grad Sch Publ Hlth, Seoul, South Korea

[22] Czech Acad Sci, Global Change Res Inst, Brno, Czech Republic

[23] Natl Inst Hlth Dr Ricardo Jorge, Dept Environm Hlth, Lisbon, Portugal

[24] Univ Porto, Inst Publ Hlth, EPI Unit, Lisbon, Portugal

[25] Univ Oulu, Ctr Environm & Resp Hlth Res CERH, Oulu, Finland

[26] Natl Inst Publ Hlth, Dept Environm Hlth, Cuernavaca, Morelos, Mexico

[27] Swiss Trop & Publ Hlth Inst, Basel, Switzerland

[28] Univ Basel, Basel, Switzerland

[29] Publ Hlth France, Dept Environm Hlth, French Natl Publ Hlth Agcy, St Maurice, France

[30] Emory Univ, Rollins Sch Publ Hlth, Gangarosa Dept Environm Hlth, Atlanta, GA USA

[31] Univ Sao Paulo, Inst Adv Studies, Sao Paulo, Brazil

[32] Shanghai Jiao Tong Univ, Shanghai Childrens Med Ctr, Sch Med, Shanghai, Peoples R China

[33] Anhui Med Univ, Sch Publ Hlth, Inst Environm & Populat Hlth, Hefei, Peoples R China

[34] Nanjing Med Univ, Ctr Global Hlth, Sch Publ Hlth, Nanjing, Peoples R China

[35] Queensland Univ Technol, Sch Publ Hlth & Social Work, Brisbane, Qld, Australia

[36] Natl Taiwan Univ, Taipei, Taiwan

[37] Natl Taiwan Univ Hosp, Taipei, Taiwan

[38] Natl Hlth Res Inst, Natl Inst Environm Hlth Sci, Zhunan, Taiwan

[39] Monash Univ, Sch Publ Hlth & Prevent Med, Dept Epidemiol & Prevent Med, Melbourne, Vic, Australia

来源：

EBIOMEDICINE | 2022年 / 84卷

基金：

新加坡国家研究基金会; 美国国家卫生研究院; 芬兰科学院; 英国自然环境研究理事会; 英国医学研究理事会;

关键词：

Greenspace; Heat; Mortality; Effect modification; LAND USE/LAND COVER; URBAN GREEN; HEALTH-BENEFITS; VEGETATION; TEMPERATURE; ADAPTATION; CLIMATE; DESIGN; CITIES; SPACE;

D O I：

10.1016/j.ebiom.2022.104251

中图分类号：

R5 [内科学];

学科分类号：

1002 ; 100201 ;

摘要：

Background Identifying how greenspace impacts the temperature-mortality relationship in urban environments is crucial, especially given climate change and rapid urbanization. However, the effect modification of greenspace on heat-related mortality has been typically focused on a localized area or single country. This study examined the heat-mortality relationship among different greenspace levels in a global setting. Methods We collected daily ambient temperature and mortality data for 452 locations in 24 countries and used Enhanced Vegetation Index (EVI) as the greenspace measurement. We used distributed lag non-linear model to estimate the heat-mortality relationship in each city and the estimates were pooled adjusting for city-specific average temperature, city-specific temperature range, city-specific population density, and gross domestic product (GDP). The effect modification of greenspace was evaluated by comparing the heat-related mortality risk for different green-space groups (low, medium, and high), which were divided into terciles among 452 locations. Findings Cities with high greenspace value had the lowest heat-mortality relative risk of 1.19 (95% CI: 1.13, 1.25), while the heat-related relative risk was 1.46 (95% CI: 1.31, 1.62) for cities with low greenspace when comparing the 99th temperature and the minimum mortality temperature. A 20% increase of greenspace is associated with a 9.02% (95% CI: 8.88, 9.16) decrease in the heat-related attributable fraction, and if this association is causal (which is not within the scope of this study to assess), such a reduction could save approximately 933 excess deaths per year in 24 countries. Interpretation Our findings can inform communities on the potential health benefits of greenspaces in the urban environment and mitigation measures regarding the impacts of climate change.Copyright (c) 2022 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier B.V. This is an open access article under the CC BY-NC-ND license (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/)

引用

页数：11

共 46 条

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